Racing: Tips to avoid taking a bath at Ellerslie

By MIKE DILLON

This is when you want the swimmers.

If it's still raining this morning, you will see horses winning at Ellerslie today that were born wearing gumboots.

If you are looking for a form guide for today there is only one - Trentham in July.

Lady Of The House (No4, R9) won there last July and can handle the worst of winter conditions. She is going to get them today and is about ready to touch the till again. That was an improver's second of hers behind talented Millennium on this track last start and she should be improved. Something Majic (No3) will be competitive.

As he is only one of two runners not receiving big apprentice claims, Go Thenaki (No3, R2) has a bit against him in the open sprint, but he is such a good mudder, he won't be out of it.

You only have to look at the stats for Flying Chief (No5) in these conditions to include him (the other non-claimer).

The 4kg claim on Danzapride (No1) takes him down to a luxury 54.5kg and you simply can't leave him out of multiples.

Craig Thornton believes My Willie Montague (No2, R3) is back to his best and you have to respect his judgment, but safer bets might be Challenge (No4) and in-form Drizzle (No8). Drizzle is well up in class from his winning double two weeks ago, but rider Michelle Hopkins believes he will appreciate these conditions even more.

Metaxa (No6, R4) is a mudder and so, too, is Upscope (No3, R5) judging on his debut second. You are probably not going to get value out of Race 6, the McGregor Grant Steeplechase, which looks a better spectacle than a punting opportunity.

Toughness and fitness are going to count for everything in the closing 200m of every race today and what better in a flat race than a horse who is coming off the back of three hurdle races.

Real Vision (No1, R7) has class and, dropping back to progressive class and with only 55kg on his back, he is going to take some beating.

Lazaros (No5, R10) and Floydeboy (No1) are among the best winter gallopers in their grade and should be anchored in the last. Explode Away (No4) looked close to a win on his last start effort.