Racing: Heavy rain will throw Sires open

By MIKE DILLON

Things will swing in favour of visitor Grout in today's $120,000 Sires Produce Stakes at Ellerslie if the predicted rain arrives this morning.

Pre-post favourite Danroad will be severely disadvantaged on a wet surface, which Grout showed he could manage in beating Danroad in the Ford Manawatu Sires Produce.

But, a word of warning - wet tracks negate class and an upset outside the favourites is possible if conditions deteriorate significantly.

That will be determined by the amount of rain.

On firm footing, Danroad looks the goods, on easy to moderately soft footing Grout appeals and beyond that, well, be careful.

Outside of Lady Dehere, there is very little exposed wet-track form in the Sires field. Validify won her only start on a heavy track, but was beaten 12 lengths behind Grout on a surface bordering on soft in the Manawatu Sires. It would be a major surprise if she turned that effort around.

Graeme Sanders has said all week that he is more pleased with Lady Dehere than he has been for some time.

The filly wilted slightly in the closing stages at Manawatu and while she could probably manage the track if it got wet, the footing would then make it a distance longer than 1400m. Easy to just soft would be best for her.

Rain would be timely for the jumpers. One who would not mind some is The Operator (No4, R1). He has won four of his six hurdle starts and is fitter for two flat races this preparation.

Bensheim (No7, R3) is underrated. He has run some smart races in stronger company than this and has won in soft ground. Rain would put a couple of the favoured runners out of play. Look for a big fresh-up run from Tsar Omar (No5), who showed smart potential last preparation.

Dadandave (No1, R4) handled the near-soft track at Manawatu last time well enough to win in dynamic style, coming from last to swamp the opposition. He is on trial for the South Australian Derby and although the 57kg topweight will not make it easy, he has plenty of class. Rocky Point (No3) is smart in the wet and has run two respectable races lately on tracks too firm for him.

A rain-affected track would make the first leg of the first TAB treble, Race 5, very difficult. One of the favourites Being Supreme (No1) gives the impression he might cope with some rain. His finishing efforts over 1600m have been impressive and his first middle distance effort will be interesting.

Tuscany Reign (No11, R6) was probably going to win last Saturday, but did not seem happy pushing between horses and eased himself up in the final strides, finishing a close third. He is going to win one soon and this could be it.

The two favourites Lottery Prize (No1, R8) and Ego Fast (No2) should both handle an easy to soft track. Both are heading for better class and it should prove a good contest. Take nothing away from the winner Nina, but Ego Fast would probably have beaten her except he was held up in the home straight last week. They look the two regardless of conditions. The improving Dulcetto (No9)won't mind some rain.

The sprint, Race 9, looks very tricky. On a reasonable surface, My Happiness (No8) will take plenty of beating, but if the footing became soft the likes of fresh runners Maserati (No4) and Hereshecomes (No12) could upset at good odds.

Elevenses (No1, R10) is not big and the 4kg claimed by Claire Anderson, reducing her weight to 55.5kg, will be crucial. She will need that to beat Society Beau (No2), who is on his way to the best classes. Elevenses will be the better suited of the pair if the track became soft. It might be a good quinella. The River Express (No6), Kanton (No7) and Be Famous (No11) are the value trifecta runners on a rain-affected surface.

It's hard to see how they can beat Sixty Seconds in the A$700,000 AJC Oaks in Sydney after her win against the odds in the lead-up at Rosehill. In a slowly run race, which did not suit, Sixty Seconds had to mount a finishing sprint from a long way back and never stopped getting home over the opposition. In a smaller field with the likelihood of a faster pace and an extra 400m to run. The New Zealand filly looks the goods.