Racing: Favourites' curse over pacer

By MICHAEL GUERIN

Baltic Eagle has 11 rivals and one curse to overcome to win the Interdominion Grand Final.

The mammoth West Australian pacer could not have had a better lead-up to tonight's great race at Addington.

He crushed several of his key rivals when winning his final heat last Friday and then drew barrier five while the other favourites for tonight's race drew the second line.

And now, trainer-driver Kim Prentice is declaring he is better than he has ever been.

"When this horse won the West Australian Cup in January I thought I could never have him better, because he was flying then," said Prentice.

"But he is even better now. He has improved throughout the series and feels great.

"I couldn't be happier and the draw looks perfect, so now it is just a matter of keeping the fingers crossed."

But before Baltic Eagle's supporters start counting their winnings, they have one little curse to keep them nervous.

Interdominion favourites have experienced a trend in recent years - just when things start looking perfect, everything goes bad.

Horses such as Courage Under Fire (2000) and Shakamaker (last year) have gone into finals touted as certainties from good draws, only to burn punters.

In fact, good draws have been the curse of Interdominion finals in the past 10 years, with Our Sir Vancelot in 1997 the only winner to have drawn inside barrier six.

What does that have to do with tonight's race?

Well, it reveals the great danger to Baltic Eagle - sometimes Interdominion finals make normally sane drivers do crazy things.

If that happens tonight and one or two horses are sent on a mission early, then Baltic Eagle could end up parked and the dynamics of the race will change dramatically.

Or he could be attacked by a driver who should know better.

That would bring the swoopers such as Sly Flyin and Mont Denver Gold into the race.

They have been the next two best pacers at the carnival and have enormous kicks should they get a cart into the race three wide.

Sly Flyin looks slightly the stronger of the pair, but Mont Denver Gold the sharper.

Both are capable of winning with the right run, but probably only if Baltic Eagle doesn't lead.

That's because if the favourite does reach the front he will more than likely pour the pressure on down the back straight, meaning his key rivals will have to come wide without cover, which could end their winning chances.

That scenario would play into the hands of Holmes D G, who should get the economical trip three back on the markers, and have his chance to charge home when the gaps undoubtedly come.

That could make him the biggest danger to Baltic Eagle.

There are others in the race, such as Shakamaker and Facta Non Verba, who have the class or courage to win but maybe they are not racing as well now as earlier in the season.

All things being equal, Baltic Eagle should find the lead inside the first lap, almost certainly from Niobium, and be too good.

But $1.90 may still be a short price for a horse with a curse hanging over his head.