Racing: Derby will test fighting qualities of classy Savabeel

By MIKE DILLON


If you tip Savabeel to be beaten in today's A$1.5 million Victoria Derby you are going to be very right, or very wrong.

There is no middle ground.

Most of the world is rating Savabeel as already over the line.

But there is a niggling doubt that what was hailed as a stunning A$3 million Cox Plate victory might have been just a tad circumstantial.

No doubt Savabeel is a fine racehorse, but fine and classy rate poorly compared with guts and grind when it comes to Victoria Derbies.

It's 2500m on one of the world's most unforgiving racetracks.

And don't forget, these are horses who in real terms are just turning 3 years old, not Queensland Derby chances in June who are about to turn 4.

A worrying point is the fact that Savabeel raced pretty fiercely into the bridle when in the trailing position from the winning post to the 1000m at Moonee Valley.

Okay, that effort will have, or should have, settled Savabeel down, but if there is even the slightest tendency to overrace today, his chances could end right there.

You cannot expend energy mid-race and see out a Victoria Derby.

Savabeel had the perfect drag along in the Cox Plate and even though Chris Munce pulled him out three deep a fair way out to avoid the possibility of leader Regal Roller dropping back on him, it was still a cosy run.

By contrast, Western Australian Plastered had to grind throughout to score an admirable win in the AAMI Vase last week. The time over the same distance was a second slower than the Cox Plate, but was negated by the extra 7kg Plastered carried.

The main difference might be the knock-down, drag-out attitude Plastered displays. Savabeel is by Zabeel, and they don't lack fight, but Plastered is something else. He has also won at 2400m.

Lions Gate was hugely impressive winning the Geelong Derby Trial and with Danny Nikolic aboard has a real live winning chance.

Savabeel can win because there is no Octagonal in the field.

The advice is, have a crack at good odds on Lions Gate and Plastered and keep Savabeel in the multiple mix.

Many consider Derby Day at Flemington the world's best raceday.

Four consecutive group one races, two group twos and two group threes, and as you would expect for such a day, winners will not come easy.

Gai Waterhouse seems to be as bad in Melbourne as she is good in Sydney. They just don't seem to get home for her in the southern city, but if you can ignore that, Winning Belle looks a great each-way hope in the A$250,000 Saab Quality. She got no favours when checked and pushed down into the worst footing on the inside in the home straight in the Caulfield Cup last start.

This is no Caulfield Cup and she has only 52kg and Cox Plate-winning rider Chris Munce on her back. The wide barrier is a worry, but is worth risking.

New Zealand's Upsetthym has been scratched from the Saab. Trainer Karen Fursdon had originally planned to top off her Melbourne Cup preparation, but she is happy with the mare's progress.

What a shame Alinghi is in the A$500,000, group one Nestle Classic. New Zealand's Miss Potential deserves a prize after her rollercoaster campaign that twice saw her stretch Starcraft's neck. It was clear she did not stay the 2040m of the Cox Plate, but covered herself in glory when she was still able to rally on the home bend after having the sting taken out of her by Savabeel moving up to eyeball her at the 500m.

She will appreciate the 1600m trip and her tenacity will keep her alive for a long way this afternoon.

Alingi has freakish ability and 1600m at Flemington is the perfect scenario for a horse that takes time to wind up.

New Zealand has a big presence in the A$500,000 Mackinnon Stakes with Lashed, Balmuse and Zafar, along with former New Zealand-trained mare Vouvray.

Waterhouse's Grand Armee turned in a performance as good as any runner when fourth in the Cox Plate and was checked along the way. Being a long strider, he will appreciate the much roomier Flemington course and if Damien Oliver can steer him a passage from the outside barrier he will take plenty of beating.

Balmuse can go close and Lashed went a big race, running on, over a too-short 1600m behind Rodin at Otaki last weekend. Play around in multiples with Grand Armee, Hong Kong-trained Elegant Fashion and the Kiwis Balmuse and Lashed. Elegant Fashion never had a chance to show her best in the Cox Plate.

The quantity of rain that fell in Auckland last night will have a big bearing on a number of races at Ellerslie today, but there are some useful chances either way.

The opposition Sophalopha (No2, R3) faces today is no stronger than the field she beat at Rotorua last start. She remains in the same grade and there is no reason she cannot repeat. Many in this race would appreciate better footing.

The odds will be microscopic on Senorita Ivory (No1, R5) but you can't have her beaten, even if she is badly off in the weights. I would not drop Sir Woody (No3) just yet and he could be the one for the quinella.

Bridie Belle (No4, R7) has more than a touch of class and safely through her first-up win at Hawera, she looks the goods in the open 1400m. My Lips Ar Sealed (No14) appeared unable to produce her finishing sprint in the tough conditions when beaten favourite at Ellerslie last start and might be more suited here despite a better field.

Kristov (No9) always gives plenty of effort.

Myladys (No16, R9) finds the line extremely well. She has gone close to winning in four starts and can crack it today.

The 2kg Sara-Lee Kelly claims off Daddy Knows Best (No17, R10) will become important late in the day. He shows a lot of promise. * Cork 'N Bottle was yesterday incorrectly listed as a scratching for today's Auckland Racing Club's meeting, New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing has announced.

Cork 'N Bottle is an acceptor for race 10 at the Ellerslie meeting and is to be ridden by Mark Sweeney.

NZTR's national racing bureau manager Alan Cole said: "We apologise for any inconvenience or confusion that has been caused as a result of an administrative error in our office."