Racing: Confidence high Gem can shine again

By MIKE DILLON


There is some seriously bad news for Penny Gem's opposition in tonight's $150,000 Avondale Cup.

Co-trainer Andrew Scott declares Penny Gem improved since her $100,000 Counties Cup deat-heat win two weeks ago.

Penny Gem probably does not need to improve at all to be difficult to beat tonight.

"The Avondale Cup is the race we set her for," said Scott yesterday. "The Counties Cup was a bonus and she is definitely fitter since that race."

Which makes the mare who has come across from Melbourne for our summer racing extremely difficult to beat.

Think back to the Counties Cup.

Pacemaker Leica Guv, previously in mixed form, but extremely talented, set up a decent home-straight lead and was not about to stop.

Penny Gem had to go and get Leica Guv and did not flinch on the task, grabbing a shared victory right on the line.

Worth remembering is that Penny Gem came from barrier No 15 of 16 runners in the Counties Cup and has this time drawn No 2, at the all important 2200m starting point.

The compressed handicap means she carries half a kilo less than her 54kg Counties Cup weight and everything looks to be in her favour.

The Counties Cup might be a traditional guide to the Avondale Cup, but Lafleur's seventh at Counties might be a good effort to ignore.

Given she is a mare who does little in training because of her difficult temperament, she has probably benefited from every one of her five starts this campaign.

Owners Peter and Philip Vela have flown their Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Scott Seamer from Australia for the one ride on Lafleur, and while apprentice Cameron Lammas has done nothing wrong, Seamer's push-forward might just bring something extra out in her.

Lafleur has the ability to win this if she does everything right.

So has little El Duce, although topweight of 57kg will not be easy to cope with.

El Duce got over the top of St Reims at weight-for-age at Ellerslie on Melbourne Cup day and although this is tougher under handicap conditions he has better class than most of there.

Andrew Scott warns not to ignore the chances of Better Watch It, something he said before the horse finished 12 of 16 in the Counties Cup.

"This is the race we've set him for, he's very fit and he's a great place chance."

An Avondale Cup is not the Avondale Cup without a decent pacemaker to set up a staying performance.

Leica Guv was back to the horse of old at Counties, thanks to an apparent change of training regime and Avondale can suit a front runner every bit as well as Counties.

Former Zimbabwean Eddie De Klerk retains the Leica Guv ride and the pair should have no trouble working to the rail from their No 11 barrier.

Rodin has class, but his form has been mixed.

What might help is that when Pennny Gem won the group one Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham, Rodin was only 2.3 lengths away. He drops a relative 3kg this time and that is often enough in a competitive race like this.

Now that he is back in form it is difficult to ignore Millennium.

He is having his last start for his current campaign, and his biggest problem is his No17 barrier draw.

Co-trainer Stephen McKee does not see it as a disaster.

"There should be plenty of speed on to open up the field going into the first bend and I think he'll get in and find a decent slot."

One who will find the step up to a middle distance is Bel Air. He could find form here and will be at useful odds to do so.

Avondale Cup

* The $150,000 Avondale Cup will be run over 2200m at Avondale tonight. Penny Gem, who dead-heated for first in the Counties Cup, is the likely favourite.

* She meets fellow dead-heater Leica Guv again today.

* Melbourne Cup winning jockey Scott Seamer has flown in for the one ride on Lafleur.