KEY POINTS:
A private workout this morning will decide whether Changeover's season is back on track.
And how he performs in the hands of trainer Geoff Small will decide whether he takes on Australia's best in the A$375,000 ($454,000) Victoria Cup in Melbourne on Saturday night or heads for a
brief spell.
Changeover produced the worst performance of his glittering career when he stopped to run last after a perfect run in the Miracle Mile on November 28.
That came just 17 days after he won the $1.2 million New Zealand Cup, when his season appeared to be going perfectly
Since then he has been soundly beaten by Auckland Reactor in the New Zealand Free-For-All and produced his Mile shocker, meaning the margin for error is shrinking.
As a commercial stallion prospect, Changeover cannot afford to keep getting beaten by inferior horses and Small says that will factor into his decision today.
"He won't be lining up unless he is right for several reasons," said Small yesterday. "He is a valuable horse and we have to make sure people see the best of him, while we also have a responsibility to punters.
"And we have the rest of the season to consider. There are a lot bigger races than this coming up."
Small was confident Changeover would start after blood tests last Thursday suggested he was regaining full health but he was disappointed by a workout at Kilmore on Sunday.
"His energy levels there weren't as good as I would have liked. But I am not sure what I expected because he has had a strange two weeks.
"So if he works well tomorrow [today] he will start but at the moment I'd say it was 50-50 at best."
If Changeover misses the Cup he will still have to stay in Australia for at least another month so could have a short spell and be set for the Ballarat And Hunter Cups in January and February.
But if the quarantine restrictions are lifted by mid-January he could well return home and prepare for an Auckland Cup against Auckland Reactor.
While his place in the Victoria Cup is tentative, another pacing great, Blacks A Fake, now looks set to start.
He was a surprise entry last week after recovering from the back problem that troubled him in the Miracle Mile and has pleased trainer-driver Natalie Rasmussen with his work.
Reigning Auckland Cup winner Gotta Go Cullen is another confirmed starter, although he will be without trainer-driver Tony Herlihy. He has family commitments at home this week, so Canterbury horseman Anthony Butt will take the reins.
The ATC has attracted the best 3-year-old pacing field of the season to Alexandra Park on Friday night where an outstanding bunch will tackle the $70,000 Alabar Elsu Classic.
Sires' Stakes winner Stunin Cullen will be joined by Harness Jewels winner Highview Tommy, last season's Sires' Stakes winner Tintin In America and exciting trio Antares, Sleepy Tripp and Gotta Go Cullect.