Mike Dillon: Mares' luck could be improving

COMMENT

It might be only a start, but the connections of classy mares Amah Dramas and Surprize Surprize had their first bit of good fortune in two months yesterday.

They discovered only 17mm of rain had fallen on the Tauranga racetrack on Thursday night.

That could be the forerunner to the real change of luck they need to win today's $40,000 Tauranga Classic.

Both mares have battled the sometimes frail fortunes of horse racing lately.

Today they have a lot of appeal as each-way chances in an interesting field of fillies and mares.

If you are a follower of statistical data you will prefer Surprize Surprize of the pair - she has had three starts at Tauranga for two wins.

Add to that, her form at the Wellington carnival was superb, despite what you see on paper as a fourth and a sixth.

Provided there is no further rain, Amah Dramas will be a tough opponent. She is another whose form is a whole lot better than it reads on paper.

She has not long been in New Zealand and one thing you can guarantee is that astute trainer Don Sellwood will now know an awful lot more about her than when she arrived from Victoria.

This is always a tricky race - remember River Chant paid a bundle when she won it last year - but if you base your investments around Amah Dramas and Surprize Surprize, the result could be a tidy collect.

The real upsetter in the race is 3-year-old filly Eftee One, a trier who had good recent form around the best fillies of her age before failing in the Oaks last start.

The rain staying away is going to be crucial to the form in just about every race today.

The odds won't be flash, but Tadan (No1, R2) has the form on the board to go close to making it back-to-back wins against fellow 3-year-olds.

It was only intermediate class he won in at Avondale last start, but before that he had run in two group ones and a group two. Go back four starts and it was a sound effort when only 4 1/4 lengths from Russian Pearl in the group one Bayer Classic. He has 56.5kg topweight, but there is not much scale on the race. Ashkala (No3) will find this easier than Taatletail and company last start.

Five-year-old maidens are generally a bad risk, but Tighten (No2, R3) makes appeal. Andrew Calder is riding exceptionally well and from an ideal barrier draw gets a real chance here.

To be fair to Tighten, he has had only seven race starts and there was a bit to like about his finishing effort when pushing Captain Butler close at Te Rapa two weeks ago. If Captain Butler goes anywhere near close in the preceding event at Tauranga, it will make that form look good for a maiden race.

Apowwow (No3, R4) often makes it difficult for herself by getting back early and having to get through the field, but she has a measure of ability. She has had a bit of a freshener and with a maximum of only six rivals to get past this time, should go close.

Two to watch here and to put in multiple bets are Wait A Minute (No14) and Logarhythm (No9). Wait A Minute looks a coming stayer and struck an unsuitable soft track at Trentham last start and Logarhythm is better than his last-start effort showed.

The progressive sprint is a tricky field, in which nothing stands out. Miss Higgins (No3, R6) can always be relied upon to be honest and she won't mind if the track turns nasty. Mendacity (No2) is eight now, has 58.5kg and hasn't raced for nine months, but don't completely count him out. Kate Hercock brings the weight down to 56.5kg and worth remembering is that he has beaten much better fields than this.

The open handicap, Race 8, could be a trap, but Deebee Jean (No4) is a bit better placed than at Te Rapa last start. There was an on-pace bias that day and she was caught back before running on well. This will be a different race.

For each-way value, Dancer In The Dark (No5, R9) makes appeal. He similarly got back against an on-pace bias the same day at Te Rapa and did well to finish three lengths from winner Avegas, running on. The time before he lost all chance when he stood in the starting stalls and gave the field an impossible start.

Mytrice (No12, R10) has shown a bit from only three starts and from an inside barrier should prove tough in an even field in the last.