Legarto surprised her trainers by winning fresh-up over 1400m at Matamata in February. Photo / Kenton Wright
What are the chances?
Ken and Bev Kelso don’t train a huge team of horses but on Saturday, they have a mare in a Group 1 race on both sides of the Tasman, two hours apart and both drawn on barrier 3.
Using basic mathematics, you can work out the odds of Legarto getting barrier 3 in the $400,000 Proisir Plate at Ellerslie (one chance in 17) and stablemate Alabama Lass getting the same barrier in the A$750,000 Moir Stakes (one in 16) at The Valley 135 minutes later.
The double barrier 3s was a one-in-272 chance but the reality of what the Matamata trainers are attempting on Saturday is far more unlikely.
By choice, the Kelsos never train a large team so to even have two genuine Group 1 horses in work is one hell of an effort.
Then to have them both racing on the same day, two hours apart, in Group 1s on either side of the Tasman? And be realistic winning chances?
In recent years, Te Akau’s trainers would have had that opportunity, while at their all-conquering best, Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman would have too.
After that, the list of Kiwi trainers in the last decade with winning chances in Group 1s on both sides of the Ditch on the same day starts to get awfully skinny.
“We are very lucky to have them both,” Ken Kelso, who will fly to Melbourne to saddle up Alabama Lass for the Moir, said.
“These races are hard to get into so to have two very good mares is a real privilege and we are happy with both of them.
“Quite incredible to draw barrier 3 with both of them and it helps Alabama Lass more than the other mare.”
Alabama Lass is naturally quick, even by Australian sprinting standards, so barrier 3 should enable jockey Craig Williams to keep her handy or even lead, often crucial at The Valley.
“I don’t really know the other horses that well, but Craig will so I will leave that up to him,” Kelso said.
“Last time, when we took her to Flemington [March] and she won the $500,000 race, I walked into the parade ring and asked Craig what he thought and he looked at me and just said ‘Ken, trust your filly’.”
“I know she is ready. Opie [Bosson] has done a fair bit of her trackwork lately and he rode her on Tuesday morning and said she is ready to go.”
The Kelsos appear to have found the right Group 1 in which to try to break New Zealand’s training drought at the highest level in Australia, with the Moir strong but lacking most of the top 20 ranked sprinters in Australia.
It will be a different story for Legarto when she resumes in the Proisir Plate at Ellerslie with the first Group 1 of the New Zealand season stacked with almost every big name you could want for a 1400m season opener.
Legarto has her ideal draw with joint favourite Grail Seeker in a useful barrier 8 but a few of the other favourites for the Proisir face trickier starting points, with La Crique drawn in 10, Tuxedo in barrier 12, Tomodachi in 14 and Quintessa way out in 16.
The emergency Meritable, who drew barrier 15, has already been scratched.
“Obviously barrier 3 isn’t as important to Legarto as it is to Alabama Lass,” Kelso said.
“But I’d like to think it would give her the chance to settle midfield outer and get her chance.
“I think she will be a better chance in the latter two legs of the Triple Crown over the 1600m and 2000m but I am not saying she can’t win.
“I learned my lesson last season in the Lisa Chittick Champagne Stakes when I thought she couldn’t win fresh-up over 1400m and she did.”
Kelso says his confidence in Legarto improves once he saddles her up.
“She is a monster, and sometimes I look at her in the box and think she is too fat.
“Then you put the saddle on her and she looks different, she carries herself differently.”
So who is the better winning chance of the two Kelso mares drawn a pair of 3s in Group 1 races on Saturday?
“Hold on, I’ll ask Bev,” Kelso said.
Chatter ensues, then the answer is decided.
“Bev says Alabama Lass, so we will go with that,” Kelso said.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.