Probabeel's chances of winning the richest race by a New Zealand-trained racehorse have improved without her doing a thing.
Her key rival and favourite for today's A$5 million All-Star Mile at The Valley in Melbourne is under a darkening cloud heading into the race later today.
Arcadia Queen had originallytightened to favouritism for the mammoth mile after drawing a better barrier (five) than Probabeel (10) during the week but problems started to emerge when Arcadia Queen was found to be one out of five horses lame at a veterinary examination on Thursday, the problem caused by casting a shoe.
That worsened to two out of five during a second inspection yesterday and Arcadia Queen will have to pass a third examination this morning to be allowed to start.
To further emphasis the extent of the concern in her camp, trainer Grant Williams has had front bar plates (shoes) applied to the wonderful mare, which not only is a bad sign, but her peak performances in the past have been when not wearing the front bar plates.
The market has already reacted to the news, and even if she is allowed to start, Arcadia Queen looks set to continue to drift and could even lose favouritism for the race.
Probabeel would be her natural replacement at the head of the market but she could go on her own rollercoaster throughout today's meeting.
The Matamata mare would be ideally suited by the rain forecast for Melbourne not falling until after the race but the Victorian Met Service is predicting rain, possibly heavy, mid-afternoon.
Firm showers won't be an issue for Probabeel, but heavy rain like that which ruined her chances in the Cox Plate in October could be telling.
So first her rival's morning examination before the scratchings deadline and then the weather could determine whether Probabeel wins the richest prize by a New Zealand racehorse.
The Jamie Richards-trained horse is undefeated this year, having won the Bellmaine Stakes (1200m) first-up before winning last month's Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m), which sealed her place among the world's best in 2021.
