The man who makes a habit of winning Karaka Millions says he shouldn't have the favourite in tomorrow's $1 million juvenile race.
But that doesn't mean superstar trainer Jamie Richards won't win the race.
Richards moves to Hong Kong in April so goes into what may be the last Karaka Million meeting he trains at and he has the first or second favourite in five of the six races.
Group 1 winners such as Amarelinha (R2, No 1) and Sword Of State (R3, No 1) head their markets because they are the best horses in the race and with Opie Bosson on and both drawn barrier one, punters will be happy to disregard their lack of recent racing and their topweights.
Festivity is a logical chance, fit and drawn well, in the Concorde so that is three races the stable could win, with Sword Of State having ample stablemate support to add to the depth.
But the races Richards really wants are the two $1 million sales races and he goes into them with different opinions, especially after losing speed freak filly Grace N Grey with a minor niggle yesterday.
"I think On The Bubbles is back to his best and our best chance of the night," says Richards of the hot favourite in the Three-Year-Old Mile.
"He had that off day at the trials last week but he can do that and his work on Tuesday suggests to me he is ready and I think we will see his best."
Not quite so glowing is Richards' take on the night's signature race, the Karaka Million, which he has won the last five years.
"We have a really good bunch and they are spot on but I think Wolverine should still be favourite," he told the Herald.
"She has been the best juvenile all season and our ones are yet to produce what she has.
"I know she has a tough draw but I am surprised Dynastic is favourite over her, even though I hope the bookies are right."
Dynastic's draw and support for Bosson should ensure he maintains that favouritism and Richards loves the horse.
"He has that real class about him and Opie is worth two or three lengths.
"I think he will be in the right spot to win the race but whether the fact he isn't a natural two-year-old finds him out we don't know yet.
"It was really unfortunate to have to scratch Grace N Grey who would have given a great sight so our next best chance is Fellini. He is a lovely racehorse and he will get his chance because he comes out of a race we like to win as a lead-up.
"Then we have Lord Cosmos, who will probably get back but hit the line hard and we could try those tactics with Times Flies now he is in the field.
"Really, I can't decide between them all and by no means do I think we are good things to win it. But if I had to pick one it would be Dynastic, even simply for the Opie factor."
Some punters may feel comfortable backing two or even three of Richards juveniles to make themselves a bracket but there is enough class about Wolverine, Pacific Dragon, Sacred Satono and a few others to suggest this will be no million-dollar pushover.
He realises Amarelinha can't be at her best but thinks if the pace is on and she can stay handy from the ace she will close hard late in what may be a race of sectionals.
But Richards can't or won't split his trio in the Almanzor, in which they also meet some class in Bonny Lass, Rhinoceros and Wewillrock.
"Sword Of State has been racing top three-year-olds in Australia and is well enough to win but he has a big weight fresh up.
"I think Imperatriz is going every bit as well as he is and Mohawk Brave is an emerging horse who galloped particularly well with Dynastic here on Monday. So I really can't choose between them.
"And in the Concorde we have a good chance with Festivity but Babylon Berlin is the one to beat because the Railway form is so strong."
Jamie Richards' best chances
1. On The Bubbles, R6, No 1
2. Dynastic, R4, No 6
3. Amarelinha, R2, No 1