Roger James probably sums up the attitude of many trainers looking forward to Ellerslie tomorrow.
The Cambridge horseman is happy to see some respite from the wet winter tracks but he doesn't want summer to arrive all at once. That's why Auckland's weather in the next 24 hours could bejust as important as the actual horsepower in determining winners tomorrow.
After a drier week than Auckland has had in months, Ellerslie was rated a dead4 last night with racing manager Craig Baker suggesting he could even get to a good3 tomorrow, almost unheard of for Ellerslie in September.
"I can't remember when we would have posted a good3 here in September," says Baker. "I am not saying that will happen this Saturday because there have been some showers but the forecast isn't for a lot more.
"We even considered irrigating but we held off in case the rain does come."
With some better surfaces around the North Island recently there is at least some firmer track form around but very few of those racing tomorrow have any great recent firm track form to assess.
That makes it tricky as so much of the recent form in the north is on wet tracks, while many of the better horses returning tomorrow would prefer drier tracks. And then there is the always hard to quantify question of whether a true wet track horse can get away with one run on a firmer surface and still perform at its peak.
James is welcomes the better track for a horse such as Concert Hall (R8, No 5), but not too good.
"Her best form is on better tracks so that part is good," says James, who trains in partnership with Robert Wellwood. "But the 1400m is also probably on the shorter side for her. So, yes, we want a better track but 1400m on a dead6 probably stops them going too fast and brings her into it more."
Concert Hall was scratched from her intended recent return to the races because Ellerslie was too wet and comes up against plenty of high class opposition tomorrow, albeit few with recent form.
Concert Hall comes up against plenty of high class opposition tomorrow, albeit few with recent form. Photo / Race Images
But in On The Rocks, Magnum, Dawn Patrol and Waikato Cup winner Justamaiz, there are some proper horses here early in their campaigns who could put in huge races without surprising. Inversely, if the heavens open in the next 24 hours, an in-form mare such as Shoshone, who has shown she can plough through the mud, could beat her more highly-rated opponents.
The same applies in tomorrow's other feature race where the hot favourite Cheval Promettuer is race-hardened and proven in the wet so if the track is in the mid-range punters can probably back with confidence, but his dry track form is not as well exposed.
A rival who could handle either is Paisley Park who rattled home over 1400m fresh-up and should be better suited by the 1600m tomorrow.
He carried 60kg to win here on New Year's Day and has won on good tracks through to heavy so looms as one of the better bets for the day, even from a wide draw.
