To say Kenny Rae doesn't often have starters in million-dollar races is a bit of an understatement.
It would be more accurate to say Rae hasn't had a starter in a $1m race for 6487 days. But on Saturday night at Ellerslie that drought is broken.
Rae and training partner Krystal Williams-Tuhoro line up Follow Your Dreams in the Double Tree By Hilton Karaka Million and not only can he win, the market suggests he is the greatest danger to the Te Akau army looking to win their fifth Karaka Million in a row.
This isn't David and Goliath, this is David's little brother who usually fights at places like Ruakaka or Omoto taking on Goliath.
Rae the realist knows how this will probably end. Follow Your Dreams will probably get beaten as most juvenile who march against the Te Akau army do. But he is going to enjoy being part of the fight.
"I have never had a horse in a Karaka Million race," says Rae.
"In fact, I have only ever had one horse in a million race before and that was Egyptian Raine in the Galaxy in Sydney (April 2003) and she was unlucky and ran sixth. But this time I think we have a chance."
It would be easy to be dismissive of Follow Your Dream's early season form at Riccarton where his only two wins so far came, but he did beat a race rival tomorrow in Avonallo in both those victories. And after all, early-season Riccarton form is how Avantage made her way to the Karaka Million three years ago and it didn't do her any harm.
What isn't so easy to ignore is Follow Your Dream charging fifth in the juvenile race at Ellerslie on Boxing Day.
Squeezed out to last early he had to be pulled sideways in the straight and went down by only two lengths, recording the fastest sectionals for every 200m spit from the 800m to the post.
All that while carrying the 58.5kg topweight in one of the strongest races of the season so far won by Palamos, who was favourite for tomorrow's race until he was withdrawn sore two weeks ago.
It was the run of a horse ready to carry his early season form on to the richest stage in New Zealand racing and Rae is certain his stable star has trained on, which is half the battle with babies racing on summer's firmer tracks.
"He is flying and is a natural early two-year-old because he has a lot of muscle.
"So we are going there with a chance. We know how hard it is going to be to beat the Te Akau horses and good on them, they do a lot for the industry so they deserve their success.
"But we have beaten Avonallo a couple of times so we have shown we can do it and I am going there to enjoy the experience."
Follow Your Dreams will have new rider Craig Grylls in charge of finding him a clear path from barrier 11 and Rae says he likes having the country's second leading jockey on for two reasons.
"I wanted to get the best jockey I could get and l also like Gryllsy, he is a good bugger.
"I like doing business like that. I might not be the richest trainer in the country but I like racing horses with people I like."
Can anybody beat Te Akau?
The country's most successful stable has made Ellerslie on Karaka Million night their playground, having won the last four Karaka Millions, adding the Karaka Classic Mile last season and they have five favourites in six races on Saturday night.
So what can beat them?
1. Levante (R3, No4): Stunning mare who could have won the Railway with a handier trip. With a clear passage and even sectionals should win the Westbury Classic.
2. Aegon (R6, No1): Amarelinha is favourite for the $1 million Karaka Classic and looks something special but Aegon is unbeaten in three starts and won the 2000 Guineas at his third start. That is rarified racing air. He may be very, very good and, having not raced for over two months, he might need to be. Fascinating duel.
3. Follow Your Dreams (R4, No2) and a few mates: You would want decent odds to bet against Team Tangerine in any juvenile race but Follow Your Dreams is a real talent. Rival trainer Glen Harvey has two in the race in Miss Ipenema and Brix who have at least beaten Te Akau favoured juveniles this season.
And Western Springs, Mr Blue Sky and Seven Twenty have all also beaten Te Akau juveniles in the last month.
So it can be done. Maybe.
4. Rain: As unlikely as rain might be at this time of year, it wasn't supposed to rain at Wednesday's barrier draw either and, trust me, it did.
Nothing puts the cat among the punting pigeons like rain on a summer raceday and if it did eventuate the game changes.