The New Zealand cricket selectors are set to make their toughest call in years – and it could result in one of their all-time greats being left out of the biggest test match of their career.
The Black Caps' squad cut-down from 20 to 15 has lefta fairly predictable and settled top six locked in for the World Test Championship final against India that starts on Friday, but one significant dilemma remains, with six bowlers pushing for the remaining five spots in the starting XI.
It's such a competitive battle that even Matt Henry – the man of the match in the eight-wicket win over England – isn't part of the equation, with Colin de Grandhomme, Kyle Jamieson, Tim Southee, Neil Wagner, Ajaz Patel and Trent Boult battling for the five spots.
How it would look: Tom Latham, Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Ross Taylor, Henry Nicholls, BJ Watling, Colin de Grandhomme, Kyle Jamieson, Tim Southee, Neil Wagner, Trent Boult.
Option Two: The XI with no all-rounder
How it would look: Tom Latham, Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Ross Taylor, Henry Nicholls, BJ Watling, Kyle Jamieson, Tim Southee, Neil Wagner, Ajaz Patel, Trent Boult.
Option Three: The XI missing a great bowler
How it would look: Tom Latham, Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Ross Taylor, Henry Nicholls, BJ Watling, Colin de Grandhomme, Fast Bowler 1, Fast Bowler 2, Fast Bowler 3, Ajaz Patel.
Option One would probably be the safest and most conservative lineup, and one that has produced plenty of success in New Zealand. But it would be a risk based on what Patel produced at Edgbaston, and while this wouldn't (and shouldn't) come into New Zealand's selection consideration, they could be left looking extremely silly if Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja spun India to victory. Black Caps coach Gary Stead also noted that he expects some spin on the Southampton wicket.
Trent Boult, Matt Henry and Ajaz Patel all played well against England, but not all of them will play against India. Photo / Photosport
Option Two would have the most bowling potential but also has the greatest chance of disaster. With Watling having struggled for runs, it produces an immense amount of pressure on the top five, and with Ross Taylor being extremely vulnerable at the start of his innings recently, there would be the potential for a batting collapse.
While a tail with Jamieson at seven could still produce runs – it wouldn't be a surprise if the tail-end five cobbled together a quick 100 – they wouldn't be able to occupy the crease, with Southee and Wagner decent options for building a total, but extremely dicey at trying to bat long periods.
Stead talked up the value of an all-rounder when discussing the squad naming, and while his answer as to whether Jamieson could bat at seven started with "I've got a lot of faith in Kyle", what followed indicated that he would be, at best, uncomfortable with having to utilise such a lineup against India.
"He hasn't yet done it at test level but he's developing nicely. In time it's ultimately where we see that hopefully Kyle could end up, or certainly push his boundaries to get up at that level because that would then allow us to look at the team slightly differently.
"Right now, we'll wait and see, it's one of the options that is definitely on the table. When you face a side like India who are a very strong test team, you want to make sure you've got the best balance.
"There's always a puzzle as to whether you go in slightly batting-heavy or bowling-heavy into a match. That's the advantage of having an all-rounder – you can balance up the group a little bit more and that's what we're aiming to do always when we select our teams."
Colin de Grandhomme was rested so he would be available for the final. Photo / Photosport
Option Three would be the bravest of the lot, having to leave out one of Jamieson, Southee, Wagner or Boult.
In a stark contrast to the test in Sydney last year, Southee seems like the only surefire lock and likely leader of the attack, while the resting of Jamieson for the second test and his success against India in New Zealand suggests he's a likely starter.
That would mean, to incorporate De Grandhomme and Patel, one of Wagner or Boult would have to miss out. Boult was the worst performer with the new ball by a reasonable margin throughout the first two tests, with Southee, Jamieson and Henry all having more success, while Wagner is theoretically less suited to the likely conditions than his fast-bowling teammates, but as well as being no slouch pitching the ball up, he also provides a crucial point of difference if the pitch flattens in the latter days of the test.
By dropping Boult or Wagner the Black Caps would be leaving out a bowler with over 200 test wickets, one whom has played a pivotal part in their rise to qualifying for this significant test.
Their decision might be made easier by the weather - if it continues to rain in Southampton, the conditions would suit an all-seam attack, and Patel would miss out. But if the conditions suggest spin is required, then the selectors are going to have to choose between two uneasy options – facing a supremely balanced Indian side with an extremely long tail, or dropping one of their test legends.
It's going to take an exceptional, bold performance to beat India – and that starts with the selectors.
