Richard Gladwell: 'Difficult decisions' - Emirates Team New Zealand's four options to get on water

Emirates Team New Zealand AC75 America's Cup yacht on the Hauraki Gulf. Photo / ETNZ.

The cancellation of the two America's Cup World Series regattas will force Emirates Team New Zealand to make some difficult decisions in their defence strategy in preparation for the America's Cup defence.

The defender will go into the America's Cup in a level of pre-series isolation, not seen before in the 170yr old event - Deed of Gift matches in 1988 and 2010 excepted.

Had all gone as planned, the America's Cup champions would have tested themselves against the three challengers' AC75's in Cagliari, in late April, and Portsmouth in early June, and finally in the Christmas Regatta due to be held in Auckland in December.

It had been assumed that additional ACWS regattas would be held in Auckland to make up for the cancelled events.

But surprisingly INEO Team UK skipper Ben Ainslie, does not want to see any additional regattas, and in fact, wants to see the race schedule compressed for the challenger selection series or Prada Cup.

"I think everyone will be hard pushed to get themselves sorted out - even by January/February," Ainslie told NZME in early April.

"Probably we should be looking at delaying or cancelling the Christmas Race, potentially even shortening up the Challenger Series to give everyone more time to get their houses in order and get to New Zealand in a safe manner."

Emirates Team New Zealand. Photo / Photosport.co.nz

There is now an opportunity for the challengers to close the gap on the Kiwis - by depriving the defender of competition ahead of the America's Cup Match.

Under the Protocol sailing or testing "in a coordinated manner" against another AC75 is banned for all teams.

That prohibition changes once the Prada Cup begins for selection of ETNZ's opponent. The rules allow the defender to commence two-boat race training or speed testing at the same time.

ETNZ now have four options, none of which are ideal and all have significant downsides for the Kiwi team.

Firstly ETNZ can sail their two AC75's against each other for just the five weeks of the Prada Cup, starting January 15, 2021.

That will require two crews of 11 sailors each. Currently, Team NZ only has one listed AC75 crew.

For a two-boat AC75 strategy, recruitment and training of a second crew would have to start now - incurring a substantial unbudgeted cost. Those last three words are music to the ears of the challengers, as they know that of all the teams, the kiwis are the most vulnerable to financial attack.

The second option is to create a four-person second crew and sail the half-size test boat Te Kāhu against one of ETNZ's two AC75's. This option allows two boat testing to commence as soon as Te Aihe is recommissioned, switching to their second AC75 when it is launched.

The use of Te Kāhu option gives ETNZ a sailing time advantage over the challengers. But it doesn't offset the lost opportunity to benchmark Te Aihe against the challengers AC75's in the two cancelled ACWS regattas.

In the Christmas Cup, the challengers could collectively agree to sandbag in their few races against the defender, depriving the kiwis of any realistic racing ahead of the America's Cup.

The third option is to carry on as ETNZ have done since the launch of their first AC75 - sailing just one boat against the performance computer and simulator. This option would have been viable, had the two cancelled ACWS regattas given the defender an early performance benchmark of how their first boat shaped up against the three challengers.

Emirates Team New Zealand sailing Te Kahu test boat in Auckland. Photo / Emirates Team New Zealand.

The final option is to dust off the Bermuda strategy - where on the water work-outs involved sailing the AC50 against the team chase boat, in Auckland in early 2017. But after arriving in Bermuda ETNZ sharpened their claws by sailing 24 races, in the challenger selection series, before going on to win the America's Cup.

All teams will get just eight or nine races in the Christmas Cup. ETNZ's series will be tinged with the doubt of whether or not the challengers are sandbagging. The Christmas Cup will be the end of ETNZ's exposure to other teams - who go on to compete in three phases totalling maybe 26 races in the Prada Cup. The winner goes on to sail against ETNZ in the America's Cup Match

There's similarities to Team New Zealand's 2000 America's Cup defence in Auckland. After running a lonely in-house two boat racing program, the Russell Coutts skippered kiwi crew came up against Luna Rossa who sailed 38 races, in a tough Challenger Selection Series over more than three months.

ETNZ's most likely strategy is the second or Te Kāhu option - racing one of their two AC75's against their half-size AC75 test boat.

Despite the size disparity, Te Kāhu would provide credible competition as it is almost as fast as the AC75 downwind, but significantly slower upwind.

The 12-metre long test boat could be tweaked with automated foil control - to achieve speeds consistently close to the maximum possible, and exert maximum pressure on the AC75 race boat and crew.

Of course, under the rules, there is no limitation on the amount of time that Te Kāhu can be sailed against one of the two race boats, and training could resume as soon as Te Aihe is recommissioned.

That could help balance the pre-Cup sailing logbooks.