The All Blacks' demolition of Ireland - where Aaron Smith scored two tries - has seen them cement their favourite's tag in a data prediction model. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The All Blacks' demolition of Ireland - where Aaron Smith scored two tries - has seen them cement their favourite's tag in a data prediction model. Photo / Mark Mitchell
All Black fans will be in "Seventh Heaven" after tonight's semifinal showdown with England, a data project which has correctly picked the past two Rugby World Cup tournament winners has predicted.
Melbourne-based Kiwi stats specialist Stefan Yelas' widely-respected results prediction model has backed the All Blacks to win the clashat International Yokohama Stadium by seven points.
And aside from the likely single-digit margin, the model has also given the All Blacks a whopping 67 per cent chance of beating the world's second-ranked side.
"The model is saying the All Blacks by seven," Yelas told the Weekend Herald.
"And it is two-to-one in favour of the All Blacks.
"They are good teams, it will be a good game and it should go more towards New Zealand. England still have a 33 per cent chance of winning, but the All Blacks should have enough to get home. New Zealanders should go in their fairly confident."
As well as rightly picking the All Blacks to win the 2011 and 2015 World Cups, it also correctly picked England to win the 2003 tournament.
After the All Blacks' 46-14 demolition of Ireland in last weekend's quarter-final, the model has increased the side's chances of winning the Rugby World Cup from 44 per cent to 47 per cent.
All Blacks captain Kieran Read on the charge against Ireland in their World Cup quarterfinal last weekend. Photo / Mark Mitchell
"You couldn't have asked for a better performance," he said.
"What is coming to [the fore] is the double play-maker [with Richie Mo'unga and Beauden Barrett]. [New Zealand] have a much more potent attack."
While backing his results model, Yelas said if Mo'unga and Barrett click again on Saturday night, the size of an All Black winning margin could be "a lot more" than the predicted seven points.
Yelas' model is backing the Springboks to be the most likely opponents in the final.
The Boks play Wales in Sunday's second semifinal; where they have been given an 83 per cent chance of winning that clash, with an expected winning margin of 15 points.
Yelas said given the Springboks' weaker semifinal opponent, they remained the team most likely to make the final at 83 per cent. The All Blacks have been given a 63 per cent chance of making the final.
"South Africa still definitely have the easiest path out of both teams. They should breeze past Wales," Yelas said.
"It won't be a big-scoring game but South Africa has got the game to shut them down.
"If it is New Zealand against South Africa in the final, then it should be about a 65-70 per cent [chance of the All Blacks winning]. They are looking pretty good."
That prediction of an All Black tournament win would be good news to four punters who placed bit bets on the TAB on a third successive Webb Ellis Cup win.
Three punters have placed $50,000 bets at odds of around $2.25. Another has placed a $20,000 bet at odds of $2.20.
Stefan Yelas' Rugby World Cup results predictor is backing the All Blacks to beat England by seven points tonight. Photo / Supplied
Yelas' Rugby World Cup – 2019 Prediction Model is a statistical model based on team ratings derived from past performances.
The model uses date from all games between the 20 teams at the World Cup dating back to 2011. Those ratings have been updated after each match in Japan.
In an exercise carried out before the start of the World Cup, the simulator was able to correctly predict the outcomes of 75 per cent of games played by the competing teams in Japan over the past eight years.
