We're nearing the business end of the Super Rugby season and despite the Blues' best efforts, they again find themselves at the bottom end of the ladder.

Following their loss to the Highlanders at Eden Park last week, the Blues sit in second-last on the Super Rugby table, with just two wins through eight games.

But the curtain hasn't closed on the Blues playing finals footy in 2018.

The three conference leaders automatically qualify for the finals with the remaining five spots filled by the next best points earners.


A reminder: a win sees a team earn four points, a draw is given two, losing by seven points or less is worth one point, and a bonus point is given if a team scores three more tries than the opponent.

The top eight standings currently place the Lions on top and they're followed by the Crusaders, Waratahs, Hurricanes, Chiefs, Highlanders, Rebels, and Bulls.

A few wins will give the fans something to cheer about. Photo / Getty Images
A few wins will give the fans something to cheer about. Photo / Getty Images

Semi-realistically, the Blues' only shot at making the finals is to finish either seventh or eighth.

Here's how they do it.

The Rebels, Bulls and Blues have all already played eight games this season and will play eight more.

Taking their overall points and dividing it by the eight games they've played their points per round score is reached.

The points per round are then multiplied by the remaining eight games in the regular season and you're left with their projected overall score at the end of the regular season.

So far the Blues have been scoring 1.5 points per round and if they were to continue this trend they'd finish with 24 points from all of their games.

The Rebels are currently scoring 2.625 points per round so they'd finish with 42 points.

Meanwhile, the Bulls, who are in eighth, are scoring 2.375 points per round and would finish with 38 points.

The Blues' best shot at making the finals then is through the Bulls who would finish with the lowest score of the top eight.

The Blues would have to greatly increase their points per round, however.

The easiest way to get there for them would be to win all of their remaining games, four points given for each win.

If they manage that - without bonus points - they'll score 32 points from the remaining eight games, that plus the 12 they currently have would take them to 44 points overall.

They can afford to lose one game too because if they win seven games they'll score 28, plus their current score of 12 that's 40 points overall.

Should they lose two games then things become even more difficult for the Blues.

Six wins and their current score would only take them to 36 points overall - they'd need to win three of those games with bonus points to take them to 39, one point more than the Bulls.

Six wins with three bonus point games are the absolute lowest amount of wins the Blues would be able to manage to get the edge over the Bulls.

Akira Ioane has been playing well in Super Rugby this year. Photo / Getty Images
Akira Ioane has been playing well in Super Rugby this year. Photo / Getty Images

Should the points per round continue for the teams, the Blues have a very taunting nine weeks ahead of them.

They play the Jaguares, Waratahs, Rebels, Reds once each and the Hurricanes and Crusaders twice.

But things don't brighten up for the Blues if they actually do make the finals.

Again, semi-realistically, the only spots they would be eyeing up is either seventh or eighth position.

If the Lions and Crusaders can maintain their first and second status, the Blues would face the Lions if they finished eighth or the Crusaders if they finished seventh in the quarter-finals.

The Blues have already played the Lions this season but haven't confronted the Crusaders yet, they'll meet in a few weeks.

Theoretically, the Blues could pull it off, but it's extremely unlikely.