What could have been a very cut and dried Livamol Classic has turned into one of the trickiest punting puzzles of the spring.
And that could leave punters and bookmakers guessing who will even start favourite until the day of the Group 1 at Hastings on Saturday.
Hot favourite LaCrique was yesterday officially pulled out of the $330,000 last leg of what has been a bizarre Hawkes Bay triple crown as she will now head to Australia — almost certainly Melbourne for the Empire Rose on October 29.
Her withdrawal saw TAB bookies promote Mustang Valley, who finished second to La Crique at Matamata on Saturday, to favourite for the Livamol with trainer Andrew Forsman confirming she is heading to Hastings.
But Forsman wants a soft track at best, with heavy footing even better, for Mustang Valley and the weather forecast for tomorrow and Thursday is for rain before the sun returns on Friday and Saturday.
Any significant rain should keep the Hastings track in the right range for Mustang Valley but if it starts to get toward the 6, or less likely, 5 range the betting picture will change.
Not so much because Mustang Valley couldn't get away with another run on an improving track but because it would suit so many of her rivals better and boost their Livamol chances.
With only a week between the Arrowfield last Saturday and the Livamol there will also more trainers than usual nervous about how their charges have come through last Saturday as Group 1 races a week apart are extremely rare for thoroughbreds in this country and even trickier to handle so early in the campaign when most horses don't have a strong race fitness base.
Add that to the barrier draw on Wednesday morning and the continued weather watch and the Livamol has gone from what many would have seen as a La Crique parade to a Group 1 with a lot of moving parts between now and Saturday.
