Kiwi teams dominate Super Rugby, Warriors claim big win and more. Video / NZ Herald
OPINION:
Australian Super Rugby teams have a rare talent for lulling New Zealanders into a false sense of security and perspective.
It's an incredible skill really, the way they manage to flap around almost hopelessly and in doing so, simultaneously hide what may be coming from the Wallabies while exaggeratingthe potential quality of the All Blacks.
This rope-a-dope trick has been going on for almost a decade now – certainly since 2016 when it became routine for New Zealand Super Rugby sides to beat their Australian compatriots.
The Super Rugby numbers make staggering reading, headlined by the shocking fact Australian sides have won just three of 55 games in New Zealand since 2015.
There was a period in 2018 when New Zealand sides were collectively on a 40-game winning streak against Australian teams and so the situation in Super Rugby Transtasman where the good folk across the ditch remain winless after 10 matches, is a continuation of what is a red herring narrative.
This Super Rugby domination of Australian teams has arguably only led to the All Blacks getting better at beating the Wallabies by bigger margins.
The figures between 2010 and 2015 are remarkably similar to those posted between 2016 and 2020, with the Wallabies winning just three tests in each period.
But the difference is that the All Blacks have more regularly enjoyed bigger winning margins, scoring 54 points in 2017, a 36-0 victory in 2019 and a record winning margin of 38 points in Sydney last year when they won 43-5.
Essentially, Super Rugby in the last six years has equipped New Zealand's best players to refine the already well-honed art of winning against the Wallabies, which, when other statistics are examined, suggests this has been a zero-sum game in relation to the All Blacks' overall performance.
The All Blacks have lost nine tests since 2016 and drawn three others. They suffered two defeats to Ireland, one each to England, Argentina, South Africa and the British & Irish Lions, with two draws against the latter two.
In addition, they lost two Bledisloe tests that were dubbed 'dead rubbers' and a third in 2019 when they were experimenting with selections ahead of the World Cup.
The qualifiers in relation to those Bledisloe Cup losses are not to devalue Australia's achievements, but to highlight that eight of the last tests the All Blacks haven't won were against opposition who play the game with a confrontational physicality and heavy reliance on their set-piece, defensive line speed and contestable box kicking.
All Blacks first five-eighths Richie Mo'unga is pursued by Wallabies second five-eighths Matt To'omua during last year's draw. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The All Blacks are no different to any other team in that the players come into the test arena to a considerable degree a product of their club environments.
This heavy diet of running riot against relatively weak Australian sides has better prepared the All Blacks to shred the Wallabies on occasion, but arguably made it harder for them to tap into a mindset of attrition that is regularly required to beat the likes of England, Ireland, France and South Africa.
The statistics show the All Blacks can play brutal, bruising rugby where they go forward first, wide second. They can scrum for penalties, execute a contestable kicking game and grind out tight victories in physical rather than expansive encounters.
But the statistics also show they haven't been able to do it consistently and that this style of crushing rugby, built on endless collisions and kicking the ball to the heavens, is not one to which the All Blacks easily gravitate or feel any kind of affinity.
Their natural default is to pass and run and the more New Zealand Super Rugby sides tear apart their Australian foes in this manner, the more ingrained it will become and the more they will revert to expansive rugby when they are under pressure and bogged down by more physical opposition.
Jordie Barrett scores against the Wallabies during a 2020 test. Photo / Dean Purcell.
Increasingly, this has been the metaphoric equivalent of taking a knife to a gun fight and the two losses the All Blacks suffered last year, they were guilty of running themselves into rather than out of trouble against the Wallabies in Brisbane and then the Pumas in Bankstown.
This year's test programme is going to see the All Blacks play 15 tests, almost half of which will see them pitted against the physical might of South Africa, Argentina, Ireland and France – four teams who excel at collision-based football.
If the All Blacks are to deliver the volume of victories their legacy demands, then the players are going to have to endure a significant reprogramming of their hard drives when they come into camp later next month so as they can better understand and execute the broader range of skills they will need.
There is clearly, on the evidence produced in Super Rugby, a strong base from which the coaching staff can work.
However, it is equally apparent based on the results of the last six years, that Super Rugby's endless romps against weak Australian teams is not adequately preparing New Zealand's elite to encounter all they will face as All Blacks.
