With Australia fielding their most inexperienced side for years, for once they should know what it feels like to play for New Zealand. Dylan Cleaver assesses the two teams' strengths and weaknesses.
KEY POINTS:
TOP ORDER
Australia: David Warner is about as raw as blue steak and his opening partner, Shaun Marsh, son of Swampy, has not been in the frying pan for much longer. However, Ricky Ponting has been there, done that. The class batsman in the field and the
key wicket.
New Zealand: Jesse Ryder will be missing from at least the first ODI but that is not as bad a break as it might have been a month ago. Martin Guptill is a ready-made replacement. Brendon McCullum hit form against the Prime Minister's XI, which is
a welcome sign. Peter Fulton will likely bat No 3 until Ryder recovers and he has a decent Chappell-Hadlee record.
The edge: Australia (by virtue of Ponting alone).
MIDDLE ORDER
Australia: Michael Hussey is in the midst of a full-blown slump, his brother David doesn't appeal as a champion and, by the standards Australia have set in the past decade, James Hopes and Cameron White are ordinary. But Michael Clarke is back and Brad Haddin has already haunted New Zealand this summer.
New Zealand: The middle order is underpinned by the prodigious talent of Ross Taylor at No 4, who fears the Australian attack not one jot. Below him, the line-up is long but not especially distinguished. Fulton will bat No 5 when Ryder returns for the second ODI but Craig Cumming
(ODI average 14.63, strike rate 54.57!) will likely bat in the middle in Perth. Neil Broom is unproven but talented, while Grant Elliott is handy.
The edge: Split decision.
SLOGGERS
Australia: A pivotal aspect of the game with the change to the powerplay rules and one Australia has yet to come to terms with. White is their best option and has smashed New Zealand before but he is a two-trick pony at best and it requires some seriously bad bowling for him to take advantage. The big danger is if one of Ponting, Clarke or Hussey (M.) is still at the crease.
New Zealand: Broom looked like he had awesome late-innings potential against the West Indies at Eden Park but didn't look so flash in Napier, out first ball. Mills is an excellent hitter because he can go straight and over mid-off, as well as over cow corner. Vettori can score quickly in strange areas. Taylor, Ryder, McCullum and even Fulton have decent slogging pedigree should one of them carry their bat that far.
The edge: New Zealand.
NEW-BALL BOWLING
Australia: Nathan Bracken has become one of the best one-day bowlers in the world. He is probably better late in the innings than early, though he's always a danger in swinging one into the right-handers' pads early. Shaun Tait can be scarily quick but bowls two lengths - very short and very full - and that should surprise nobody any more. Mitchell Johnson has had a superb past six months but is beginning to look tired, while Ben Hilfenhaus' outies are honest but not overly threatening.
New Zealand: Kyle Mills is terminally under-rated in this form of the game but he invariably gets early wickets. Tim Southee is also a genuine new-ball threat but, after that, the cupboard is bare. Iain O'Brien deserves most of the plaudits he gets for the shifts he puts in at test level but has never looked like an ODI bowler. And who knows what you'll get from Trent Boult or Brendon Diamanti at this level?
The edge: Split decision.
MIDDLE OVERS
Australia: Hopes and Hussey (D.)are the men for Australia here, with Johnson potentially playing a role if he doesn't take the new ball. Australia is not strong here and as long as New Zealand slows Hussey and makes him bowl when they're ready, not when he's ready, he is eminently hittable.
New Zealand: Daniel Vettori and Jeetan Patel, you'd presume, will do the bulk of the bowling through the middle stages of the innings, with nibbling contributions from Ryder and either Elliott or Diamanti. The key is most definitely the skipper.
The edge: New Zealand.
DEATH BOWLING
Australia: Bracken, Bracken, Bracken. It's the other end that might prove the problem, with Tait maybe asked to spear in a few yorkers, or Hilfenhaus. With the potential for the field to be up, Bracken's mix of pace, in-swing, no swing and cutters are a godsend for his skipper.
New Zealand: Vettori simply hasn't worked this one out yet. Mills will be asked to play a role but he has been better at the front of the innings than the back. Southee can take a caning from time to time and there is no chance of Patel or the skipper taking this job on if the field is up. Perhaps Ryder, with his skidders and yorkers, might be worth a shot.
The edge: Australia.
FIELDING
Australia: Still an excellent ground fielding side. Run to Ponting or Clarke at your peril. When, or if, Symonds returns, they have three world-class infielders. Tait, Hilfenhaus and Bracken have good throwing arms but they are sluggish getting to the ball and have ordinary hands. Should be targeted for twos when they are in the outfield.
New Zealand: Has the better keeper, which is vital. In Guptill, New Zealand has a fielder to match the best this country has ever produced and Broom looks a good patroller of the deep. Aside from that, there is, how shall we say it, a distinct lack of pace but the hands are generally good.
The edge: Split decision.
INTANGIBLES
Australia: Are at home and have been backed into a corner by a disappointed fanbase and a disapproving media. Ponting has been asked to emulate Allan Border and lead an inexperienced team to greatness. Match hardened after series with South Africa.
New Zealand: Confident in their ODI ability and well-rested. Enjoy stepping up against 'Big Brother' even if results don't always show it.
The edge: Australia.
THE VERDICT
This is by no means a great Australian side but you still have to fancy them at home against a similarly inexperienced New Zealand team. You suspect, even with their struggles against Dale Steyn and co, Australia will invariably score 250-plus. For New Zealand to have a fighting chance, McCullum and Taylor both must have a big series.
Australia 4-1.
CHAPPELL-HADLEE TROPHY BY THE NUMBERS
5 The numbers of wins both countries have had.
Australia might have won two series to New Zealand's one, but New Zealand own the only clean sweep, the extraordinary 2006-07 series that culminated in Craig McMillan's and Brendon McCullum's heroics in Hamilton.
2 The number of rain outs (both in Australia, no less).
The first, in the Brisbane 2004-05 series, was a particular bummer because the series was locked at 1-1 and little separated the two sides. New Zealand had won a thriller in the opening Chappell-Hadlee encounter at Melbourne's indoor Docklands Stadium, while Australia held off an inspired Kyle Mills (44 not out) in Sydney by 17 runs. The second rainout, in Sydney in 2007-08, probably prevented an Australian whitewash, truth be told.
468 The runs scored by Ricky Ponting, the most in the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy.
To think he never played in the series NZ won 3-0 either. Prolific against New Zealand in all forms of the game. Ponting remains the key wicket, even more so now with the struggles of Michael Hussey and the travails of Andrew Symonds.
15 The wickets taken by Brett Lee, the most in the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy.
And he won't be there. Shaun Tait has replaced Lee as a shock weapon but he does not have the blonde paceman's smarts. With Mitchell Johnson also struggling in the one-day format, the Aussies' seam bowling stocks look thin.
356 The runs scored by Brendon McCullum, the most by a New Zealander in the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy.
McCullum has inadvertently put a lot of pressure on himself with his flitting off to NSW for the final of Australia's domestic T20 competition. What he desperately needs is a good international innings for New Zealand to restore a little lost faith.
12 The number of wickets taken by Daniel Vettori, the most by a New Zealander in the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy.
Johan Botha made Australia's middle order look pretty ordinary and he is half the bowler Vettori is so the signs point to a decent series for New Zealand's skipper. He could even pass Lee's total, though the chances are Australia will take a conservative approach against him.
9 The number of times Australia has batted first in the 11 matches to have started.
Australia like setting targets, New Zealand like chasing. Don't expect much of a change in Australia either.
280.44 The average score Australia posts against NZ when batting first in the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy.
That average is dragged down by the 148 they stumbled to against a Shane Bond-inspired NZ in 2007. In short, to beat Australia, NZ are going to have to chase fearlessly and execute brilliantly.
