The hosts face the prospect of a dead rubber in Hamilton unless they haul in the Moby Dick of fourth innings chases – currently 534 – over the remaining three days.
A loss would concede a second consecutive home series after Australia ended an undefeated run of 13 last season.
Many of the incumbent Black Caps have been pioneers, taking the sport’s expectations in this country beyond multiple new frontiers for more than a decade.
Those contributions grant them a degree of faith, but not at the expense of merit.
Can New Zealand afford to stick with the same XI out of loyalty?
Coach Gary Stead was questioned specifically about whether Will Young, the man of the series in India, should continue carrying the drinks after the first loss at Christchurch.
His reply addressed his selection philosophy: “The last thing I want … is revolving chairs the whole time because then I don’t think people trust you … or their role in teams.
“We don’t want selfish players; we want players playing for the team.”
Ergo, the current squad is unlikely to change next week in Hamilton, but conundrums loom:
1. Can Young be ushered into the top six?
Presuming Tom Blundell stays, based on his wicketkeeping more than his batting, that means Devon Conway comes under scrutiny with the lowest average of the remaining five across the last year. His mean is 22.70, but he contributed key half-centuries in the first innings at Bengaluru and Pune, as well as the second innings of the second test at Galle.
Opening also requires a different lens for analysis than the middle order. When Young has donned the pads first in 21 innings he averages 22.76, compared to 13 outings elsewhere at 43.90.
2. If Mitchell Santner is selected, which pace bowler drops out?
Only two wickets have fallen to spin in two Plunket Shield matches at Seddon Park this season, so the chance of introducing extra tweak might be reduced.
The brutal option, lacking in any form of sentimentality, is to leave out Tim Southee, one game short of completing his valedictory tour.
The diplomatic option, aka the United Nations peace-keeping directive, is to switch Nathan Smith for Santner, based on a like-for-like, tailored-for-conditions all-rounder logic.
Smith has only played two tests as a sample size but, in the past year, Southee has 15 wickets at 61.66 without taking more than two in an innings since March 2023. In the same period, Matt Henry has 42 at 18.04 and Will O’Rourke 31 at 25.94.
3. Should Blundell and Glenn Phillips switch between numbers six and seven in the order?
Seeing Phillips marooned on 16 in New Zealand’s first innings of 125 felt like a waste of resources for his stroke-making talents and present form.
