OPINION:
The All Blacks have a habit of losing in Australia in World Cup years, but it’s not clear yet whether this is a good or bad thing.
The last four World Cup cycles have seen the All Blacks come to Australia to open the Bledisloe Cup series
All Blacks v Wallabies Bledisloe Cup: Why NZ can’t afford to lose in Melbourne - Gregor Paul
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Whether these defeats have been a good thing for the All Blacks in the context of their World Cup aspirations is trickier to answer.
In 2007, at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, the Wallabies expertly demonstrated that the All Blacks had a psychological faultline running through the core of the team.
Their 20-15 victory highlighted that the All Blacks leadership team was not as connected or as commanding as the coaching team thought.
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The only problem was, however, that despite the problem being put under the full glare of the spotlight in Melbourne, no one really saw the warning signs or took them seriously.
That defeat was written off as a blip, but those frailties came back to haunt the All Blacks a few months later when they reared their head again in Cardiff.
In 2011, the All Blacks tumbled to an unexpected loss in Brisbane when Radike Samo scored one of the great individual tries in Bledisloe history.
The defeat, which was the second in succession after the All Blacks had lost in South Africa the week before, turned out to be a blessing.
It was a reality check for the All Blacks - a reminder that while they had cruised through 2010 and rediscovered their swagger, they needed to find another level again in World Cup year.
In truth, they had been a bit of a shambles that week in Australia, not helped by having to name their World Cup squad on the Monday before the test.
They returned to Auckland focused, angry and sobered up as it were, tidied everything up and used that defeat as a launch pad to win the World Cup.
Four years later and the Wallabies were at it again, with new coach Michael Cheika surprising the All Blacks by installing a genuine physical edge to his troops and playmaking variation from Nic White at halfback.
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Again, the defeat came at a good time for the All Blacks. It left a number of senior players, most particularly Daniel Carter, in need of a big performance in the return game at Eden Park.
Being under pressure before the World Cup was a welcome part of the preparation: a golden opportunity to replicate, in some way at least, the sort of intensity that comes with World Cup games and the Wallabies were blown off the park by the All Blacks in Auckland.
It was a victory that reset the benchmark in terms of what the coaches expected from the team in regard to the intensity of their preparation, and a few months later, the All Blacks delivered a repeat performance in the World Cup final to be back-to-back champions.
And then there was the horror show in Perth 2019. A red card to Scott Barrett in the first half left the All Blacks scrambling and they suffered a record defeat.
Their heads were collectively in the clouds, and it led to the All Blacks making significant selection changes for the return game, which would stay in place through to the semifinal of the World Cup.
As for 2023? The All Blacks have suffered enough adversity in this World Cup cycle to not need yet one more unexpected defeat to sharpen minds and refocus attitudes.
A defeat in Melbourne feels like it would do more harm than good, given the confidence the All Blacks are slowly building since losing four of their first six tests last year.
This is a side that feels entirely grounded and aware of its frailties without needing them exposed yet one more time before the World Cup.
A defeat to Australia this weekend wouldn’t be so much sobering as disruptive for a team that is slowly coming to believe in itself, its coaching group and tactical masterplan.
Confidence and certainty will be more powerful drivers for this particular All Blacks team and their World Cup preparation would be best served by breaking the habit of losing in Australia.
