National has fallen two points to 43 per cent in the latest Roy Morgan poll. New Zealand First would hold the balance of power if the poll was converted to an election result and assuming Mana, Maori Party, United, and Act keep an electorate seat.

New Zealand First has polled 5.5 per cent, up two points, and over the 5 per cent threshold that guarantees a party seat if it has no electorate seat. It currently has no electorate seat but has eight MPs in Parliament, after attracting 6.59 per cent of the party vote last election.

The Conservatives are up to 2.5 per cent, which would give the party three seats if it won an electorate seat. With or without the Conservatives, New Zealand First would hold the balance of power.



The latest Roy Morgan poll: National 43 per cent (down 2.5), Labour 32 (up 0.5), Green 13 per cent (down 1), NZ First 5.5 (up 2), Conservative Party 2.5 (up 1), Maori Party 1.5 (down 0.5), Act 0.5 (no change), United Future 0.5 (unchanged), Mana 0.5 (up 0.5), Internet 0.5 (up 0.5).