Weather outlook: More rain on the way for NZ after settled start to the week

There’s more warm weather in store for Monday – but that’s forecast to give way to a series of fronts, bringing rain to most places by Thursday. Photo / Alex Burton

• There’s more warm weather in store for Monday – but that’s forecast to give way to a series of fronts, bringing rain to most places by Thursday.
• Another ridge of high pressure is expected to arrive later in the week, setting up a return to settled, sunny conditions next weekend.
• Meteorological drought conditions have now emerged in southern Hawke’s Bay, with little moisture on the horizon to ease the dryness.

Forecasters are picking more balmy weather for New Zealand to kick off the working week – but a series of rainy fronts wait in the wings.

Multiple centres were treated to warm, sunny spells throughout Sunday, with afternoon temperatures in Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga hovering around the 20C mark.

But the settled conditions, delivered by a ridge of high pressure draped over New Zealand, are soon expected to give way to another series of fronts approaching from the Tasman Sea.

“We currently have a cold front out in the Tasman which is approaching from the west, and that will start to bring some slightly wetter and unsettled weather to the south and west of the South Island as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday,” MetService forecaster Dom Barry said.

Here's a glance at the working week ahead 👀

A ridge lies over Aotearoa/New Zealand today bringing sunny and settled weather to most ☀️

However, a series of cold fronts approach the from the southwest tomorrow and throughout the working week, bringing rain to the west and south… pic.twitter.com/vahguW7plx

— MetService (@MetService) November 17, 2024

That front was forecast to move up the country throughout the rest of the working week, bringing rain to most areas by Thursday, before another ridge is to bring a return to settled conditions next weekend.

MetService was forecasting westerlies and showers for Auckland on Wednesday and Thursday – albeit still with highs in the early 20s – with a similar picture for northern centres including Tauranga and Hamilton.

In Wellington, there was a chance of heavy showers on Wednesday, along with strong northwesterly winds.

There was also potential for some showers in eastern centres throughout the week – but not enough to ease dryness that’s been setting in ahead of summer.

“There might be the odd shower that creeps out of a southerly flick that pops through, but it’s not going to be much, and certainly not enough to counter any drought effects.”

Over the weekend, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) reported meteorological drought conditions have now emerged in southern Hawke’s Bay.

The NZ Drought Index (NZDI) shows that meteorological drought has now emerged in the southern portion of Hawke's Bay (🔴).

The east coast has seen very meagre rainfall so far in November:

Gisborne: 11% of normal Nov rainfall

Napier: 12% of normal

Māhia Peninsula: 8% of normal pic.twitter.com/MgxM6BOi4F

— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) November 16, 2024

So far in November, Napier, Gisborne and Mahia Peninsula have respectively received just 12%, 11% and 8% of their normal November rainfall levels.

Barry said current modelling showed little sign of that picture changing any time soon.

“It doesn’t look like the east coast will be getting much of a reprieve over the next month.”

Those dry trends had developed after months of spring weather conditions much like the week ahead, with constant westerly fronts.

Barry said as we edge closer to summer, we can expect more ridges to form over the whole of New Zealand, bringing dry and settled weather.

Niwa reports temperatures are likely to be warmer than average over the November-to-January period, with frequent northwesterly winds leading to more days above 25C.

Also raising the odds for hot summer weather was the potential for marine heatwave conditions – already occurring in seas to the east of New Zealand – to expand and intensify.

Jamie Morton is a specialist in science and environmental reporting. He joined the Herald in 2011 and writes about everything from conservation and climate change to natural hazards and new technology.

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