Two's company: What now for Winston and NZ First

The agreements are signed, the portfolios distributed. What now for Winston and NZ First, asks Claire Trevett.

When NZ First leader Winston Peters stood to announce his choice of Labour over National, he was glowering with gloom.

The decision had apparently weighed heavily upon him. The announcement was prefaced by a lengthy prediction of dark economic clouds that were about to sweep through the country and an attempt to clear himself (and Labour) of any blame ahead of time.

He grumped about a housing market slowdown, 'hot money', and ebbing consumer and retailer confidence. "There were great risks in whatever decision we made and, despite our having no influence on those risks, some will attempt to heap the blame on us."

He grumped about capitalism. He grumped about Labour and the Greens campaigning as an alternative government and people daring to include NZ First in that blend without his say-so.

Then he quoted the Rolling Stones: You can't always get what you want.

Finally came the rushed final sentence. "We choose a coalition Government of NZ First with Labour."

By Tuesday he was side-by-side with Jacinda Ardern to sign the agreement that led to that choice. It was the first time the two had been photographed together, such was the rarity with which their paths had crossed beforehand.

She called him "Mr Peters" - never just "Winston". When he turned to shake her hand, he broke into a genuine and warm smile. When they sat across from each during the Swearing In, straight after Ardern confirmed she could form a government, she beamed across at Peters and nodded.

They are spring and autumn, sweet and sour. But even Peters, Parliament's most cantankerous and sceptical soul, had been cracked by Ardern.

Former NZ First MP Pita Paraone has known Peters for years and years. He says ultimately Peters' decision would have come down to trust.

"It was the issue of trust - that's where Labour got the nod.

"He feels there's a sense of trust he can put in [Ardern], although personally I think there are one or two on her team we'd have to be cautious of."

In the lead-up, many of those who knew Peters and some who didn't said this term would be critical for Peters to leave his legacy. Peters himself never said any such thing - it would be to admit to mortality.

And he has never even hinted he might move on after 2020.

LEGACY TAKES many forms. There are physical legacies. One such would be Peters' wish for the Ports of Auckland to move to Whangarei, something the agreement stops short of delivering, although it does say it will be considered.

Instead NZ First will plant trees. Lots of trees. Or rather, it will enlist others to plant trees - from beneficiaries to Maori on Maori land.

When talking about the agreement, Peters spoke of their delight at the portfolios - including deputy PM, Foreign Affairs, Regional Development, Children, and Defence.

"But more important than a portfolio is a budget policy to go with them and that's what we've secured and we think that was critical for this coalition to start off in the first place."

That is the $1 billion regional fund. That will include the "Billion Trees" plan to plant 100 million trees a year for 10 years, both in forestry and native bush as "carbon sinks".

It will also cover investment in regional rail - another of Peters' dreams. The minister charged with delivering it, Shane Jones, said it would have multiple benefits.

"It's a tick for climate change, it's a tick for regional development, it's a tick for marginal Maori land and some of their ne'er do well neighbours - they will be out planting trees."

Jones, a former Labour MP, believes there will be rewards for NZ First from delivering change and "a new generation of political leaders". NZ First was in it for more than one term.

"We have to deal with the fact we only got 7.2 per cent of the vote and the negotiations reflected that - we couldn't get everything we wanted. Winston's legacy up north will almost certainly be the re-capitalisation and revitalisation of the railway. And we are going to push unstintingly for the relocation of the port to Northland."

Opposition forces were quick to dismiss it as a slush fund for NZ First to splash around to shore up its vote. After all, itt had pilloried National for promising to upgrade 10 one-way bridges in Northland - and here it was with enough money to dole out for every bridge in the country.

One man's pork barrel is another's tender ministrations to a neglected part of society.

Jones says it is just the nature of political theatre and insists money will be wisely spent once the criteria have been worked out with Economic Development Minister David Parker.

"He is a parsimonious southern boy and I'm regarded as a feckless Northlander, I'm sure we will have a suitable meeting in the middle."

Paraone says the regional development emphasis would resonate in the regions - and hopefully create work, easing the urban flight of young people. "[NZ First] will have to confront the traditional support for National. But I think that regional development area will be one that will provide a legacy for NZ First."

There is also the unspoken benefit of all that money - re-election and political survival. One of Peters' other hoped-for legacies will be the survival of NZ First. The immediate challenge looms in three years' time - 2020.

NZ First's result of 7.2 per cent in 2017 was half of what the party was aiming for and stripped it back to its skeleton support base. It cannot afford to lose many more before slipping under the 5 per cent threshold.

The bigger problem is the party vote. NZ First is unlikely to get party votes from Labour-leaning voters while Ardern is resurgent. It will need to keep its more conservative voters who might have wanted Peters to side with National.

Jones believes the party lost more voters to National leader Bill English's call to "cut out the middle man" than to Ardern's heightened popularity.

Foreign Minister Winston Peters in 2008, with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

"I found my voters in the Cossie Club. I think our focus, which I'm going to have a key role in, in driving change in the provinces and the regions, will reward those people who may have felt they could not stick with us.

"They bought into the siren cry 'get rid of the middle man'. But hey, that's election politics. So we've got to win them over again and I think once they see there's credible change happening in the regions, and a credible voice that is prepared to stick up for heartland New Zealand."

NZ First's highest support was in the regions - conservative and safe National seats. That is why its concrete gains - from that $1b fund for capital spending on regional infrastructure to an extra 1800 police, to a proposal for a "Dad's Army" rural volunteer constabulary - are targeted at regional and rural New Zealand.

In the end, for NZ First's chances in 2020, the most important aspects of the agreement may not be what it

Foreign Minister Winston Peters in 2008, with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

We have to deal with the fact we only got 7.2 per cent of the vote and the negotiations reflected that. Shane Jones

gave NZ First license to do - but what it stopped Labour and the Greens from doing.

The party succeeded in getting Labour to back down on some of its plans for rural New Zealand. That included water levies on commercial users such as orchardists and farmers, It ensured bringing agriculture into the Emissions Trading Scheme was not a political decision but would be made by an independent body - and that farmers would have to pay 5 per cent of the cost of their emissions, rather than the 10 per cent Labour had proposed.

If a second term Labour Government looks likely, NZ First will be hoping to prompt National voters to side with them to ensure there is a handbrake on Labour and the Greens again.

"Buy some insurance and vote NZ First" has been one of Peters' campaign cries: the agreement is intended to show just what that can mean.

The 2020 challenge also makes stability of the new Government critical. The inclusion of a waka jumping bill - to prevent MPs deserting their own party and joining another or becoming an independent rather than leaving Parliament - is not simply a whim, it's an insurance policy.

NZ First suffered from waka jumpers in the 1996-1999 National Government and was punished by losing 12 seats and plummeting to 4.26 per cent. It remained in Parliament only because it had the security of Peters' Tauranga seat. Peters is now acutely sensitive about stability.

During a press conference this week, he revealed there was a 38-page document underlying the public eight-page list of policy wins. It set out how the Government would work.

"We put a lot of thought into it. On day one of the negotiations, that was the first subject we raised 'how are we going to handle a successful, cohesive arrangement?'"

PARAONE SAYS it is clear Peters still has the energy for the leadership and he does not believe succession is an immediate issue. "But there's going to come a time when we need to be identifying likely candidates to take the party beyond 2020."

The wannabe successors are lined up and waiting. Most mentioned in this regard are Ron Mark, Shane Jones and Tracey Martin. The caucus will hold a vote on leadership positions soon - although that is more likely to be a vote on the deputy leadership rather than the leadership.

Paraone says Peters' decision to take Foreign Affairs indicates he trusts his deputy Ron Mark to run the ship in his absence. "Whether or not we can take that as an indication of who might take over, Ron has the opportunity to show he can lead the team while the boss is overseas."

Paraone says Jones is unproven in NZ First circles. "He has a chance to win them over. Essentially he hasn't done the time: they probably feel there's a sense of carpet-baggership around his re-emergence."

In Whangarei, Jones improved on NZ First's overall result but got the electorate votes of just two-thirds of NZ First voters in his first go as candidate.

Jones describes his regional development role as a posting to Murupara. "The international circuit has a certain allure, but of course I've been given Murupara and to wander off and plant a billion trees. One does what one is told to do."

Then there is how Peters wants to go down in history - and whether he can eclipse the patched record that has led him to here.

He did not respond to a request for an interview and has not given any indication as to when he himself might step out of politics. But he had a message for other retiring politicians: don't expect a cushy diplomatic post.

He revealed that, in his agreement with Labour, there was an assurance former politicians would not be sent to plum postings overseas because "far too many have gone abroad who aren't up to it".

There were exceptions to every rule - "there have been some rare examples where they've been spectacularly successful".

Somebody who has served as Foreign Minister twice might consider themselves in that category.