OPINION
The party that is thought of as the best manager of the economy is often the party that ends up in government after an election. If a political party isn’t seen as credible economically, then its policies on health, education and housing don’t look credible either. That might not be fair, but then again, very little is fair in politics and governance.
It’s why parties spend so long cultivating an image of responsibility in this area. National has an advantage here – it is often seen as the party of business – and as such is thought of as being good with numbers. Recent evidence from the past three elections would suggest otherwise, but it’s a moniker that sticks.
Parties of the left have to work much harder to show to the public they can be responsible with national finances. That explains why Labour and the Greens signed up to the Budget Responsibility Rules in 2017. They needed to show that they were “ready” for government. While the public may not have entirely believed that then, it did enough to quell public concern, and to help win the election.
Alongside that prudence in 2017, the Labour Party also had a spending plan – the Families Package. That saw thousands of kids lifted out of poverty. It also delivered the first Wellbeing Budget, and much-needed investment started to flow into health and education. That prudence also meant that when the Government needed to turn the money taps on during Covid or Cyclone Gabrielle, it had the space and ability to do so.
But the party never set out a vision of what a good economy looked like. It never brought the voters in on what they themselves should be getting; on how the Government was going to make life better, and crucially, easier for them. When some of the hyped investments didn’t bring much return, or the gloss went off the new spending announcements, the public grew tired of being told to just wait in lots of different ways. Billions were being spent, but little seemed to be happening. The good times were clearly happening to someone else.
When National finally got its act together, that natural advantage, coupled with a lack of an economic plan from Labour, led people to take National seriously again. Labour’s response during the election was to say how bad National was, rather than what it stood for. The campaign rapidly went negative. Debate became bogged down on the level of tax cuts needed, and why the public service needed cutting. To their credit, the Greens provided a positive point of difference and have reaped an electoral reward. Labour chose to play on National’s turf.
Many people will cast around for the thing Labour did wrong in 2023. Understanding the problem will help, but it will only help if it leads to actual change. To do that, Labour needs to listen hard and learn. Thousands of voters stayed away from Labour because they didn’t see anything for them in the party. They stayed away from the voting booth because there was no plan for an economy they could grasp and see some benefit in.
That new vision has to start with an understanding that life for too many New Zealanders is hard and easy solutions sound good. Tax cuts during a cost of living crisis will bring short-term relief, even if in the long run, they hurt public services, widen inequality and make inflation worse. They work because they answer the question that most people ask – how will I make enough for my family?
Labour has a job on its hands. It must clearly articulate a new, positive vision for the economy and the enabling role of the Government. It must provide answers that speak to the problems people have, not the ones the Government knows how to solve. Labour has to provide a voice for those without one. Yes, it has to be responsible – but it has to be responsible to an end. That end must be a better economy that works for everyone, not just landlords, not just those with higher incomes. One that works especially for those who stayed away from the voting booth in 2023, or those who have chosen to leave Labour since 2020.
Labour can look overseas for examples of this done well. US President Joe Biden has delivered a strong economy, low unemployment and significant investment in infrastructure. He is shameless in wanting to deliver growth from the “middle out and the bottom up”. Inflation has fallen by more than half. This is what a good economy looks like – one with “good-paying union jobs”, as Biden calls it. It’s the opposite of what National has to offer. It’s an opportunity for Labour to seize.