On almost every indicator, things are heading in the wrong direction. Unemployment is rising and is forecast to rise further. The rate would be higher if it weren’t for the fact that Kiwis are heading overseas at record levels - 133,000 people migrated away from Aotearoa in the year to September, that’s one person leaving every four minutes and 22 seconds.
Tamariki poverty is rising and the response of the Government is to change the targets. The Government is comfortable with nearly 17,000 more children being in material poverty. These are our tamariki who report living in cold, damp housing and suffering as a consequence.
The plan to make that better is to reduce insulation standards in new homes. Not that there are many of them any more, with 11,141 fewer people working in construction and residential building work falling 16% in just one year.
If this was some necessary plan to return Aotearoa to economic growth, then this is failing. GDP fell when last measured, while around the rest of the world economic growth is restarting.
The Reserve Bank forecasts growth to be anaemic at best over the next year. Business investment won’t reach the levels found in 2023 until 2026. In real terms, wages are forecast to be no better off by the time of the next election than they are right now.
If this was a necessary plan to return the government books to balance, then this is failing as well.
The Government is already $800 million more in the red than it planned to be this year. Debt is higher – and that’s not being driven by investment. It might be forgivable if we were buying new ferries, rebuilding Dunedin Hospital, or building new state homes – but all of these projects have been severely downsized or cancelled.
It might be okay if we were investing in new science, rather than losing 350 jobs in the public science sector.
The only response this Government can deliver is to crow about interest rates falling – a decision they have absolutely no control over.
As a reminder, we cut interest rates when the economy isn’t doing so well, it’s often not a reason to celebrate. Inflation is down for some, as it is around the developed world.
Rents continue to rise despite an estimated $3 billion in landlord tax bribes. Insurance is up more than 20% a year. Rates are rising nearly 10% a year because of the botched water reforms of this Government.
Merry Christmas. Some ministers deserve only coal in their stocking this year.
But many of them would probably like that, along with oil, gas, and fast-tracked permits to strip-mine the seabed and the last bits of pristine Aotearoa.
It won’t feel much like Christmas in towns like Tokoroa, threatened by the closure of the local mill with the loss of 260 jobs. Nor at Smithfield Meatworks (600 jobs) nor Winstone Pulp Ruapehu (230 jobs). What makes it more galling is that there is a $1b “Regional Growth Fund” that remains unspent to help.
It’s like Ruth Richardson is in office again. As we gather around barbecues this summer we should remember that, just like last time we played this game, everything being done here by the Government is a choice.
It’s a choice to cut $2b from the health service next year – which is what Te Whatu Ora is being asked to do.
It’s a choice to cut the minimum wage in real terms and make work more insecure for thousands of young people.
It’s a choice to cut taxes for landlords like me and then make an estimated $750,000 in tax-free income like the Prime Minister. It’s a choice to give tobacco companies a tax cut, at the cost of thousands of lives every year.
There is hope. The hīkoi against the zombie Treaty Principles Bill showed Aotearoa at its best – united, strong, showing solidarity with one another. In Dunedin 35,000 people protested against the hospital scaling back decision.
People are seeing this Government for what it is; just look at the latest raft of polls.
For a Government that promised to get us “back on track” we are remarkably far from where the majority want us to be.
It is responsible for the choices that got us here, and it should own up to the consequences of those decisions. It’s time for a driver who knows what they are doing.
