Jen Corkran, animal protein analyst with RaboResearch, says beef prices hit record highs in March and April. Photo / Chris Hillock Photography
Jen Corkran, animal protein analyst with RaboResearch, says beef prices hit record highs in March and April. Photo / Chris Hillock Photography
ANALYSIS
By Jen Corkran, animal protein analyst, RaboResearch, Rabobank NZ
The North Island experienced varied conditions over summer and autumn 2025, with farmers on the East Coast faring best after welcome - and needed - Christmas and early new year rain, which set most producers in this region up for a reasonable summer in terms of homegrown feed.
A major positive for sheep and beef farmers over the last six months has been the sharp improvement in sheep meat returns.
Beef pricing has been the cherry on top, with week-on-week record-breaking farmgate prices through March and April.
The beef schedule for the North Island across bull beef, prime, and cull cow continues to hit record highs, with average pricing up to 50% above the 5-year average.
In late-April 2025, the AgriHQ NI bull price was NZD 7.65/kg carcass weight (cwt), P2 steer at NZD 7.55/kg cwt, and manufacturing cow at NZD 56.10/kg cwt.
Average export value for beef hit a record in February 2025 at NZD 10.85/kg Free On Board (FOB), with this number matched again in March 2025 and close to the previous high in July 2022 of NZD 10.84/kg FOB.
In March 2025, the total value of beef exports (provisional) hit an all-time high at NZD 534 million, 32 million more than the previous high in May 2024.
This is despite the monthly volume of exports only being the ninth highest in the past five years.
The much-talked-about United States beef herd rebuild is the key driver behind New Zealand‘s higher prices for lean trim (grinding) product.
The US remains the biggest market for New Zealand beef in both volume and value, with just over 182,000 tonnes of beef shipped in 2024, worth NZD 1.84 billion.
For New Zealand, this primarily includes bull beef and manufacturing cow, but all cohorts of cattle are benefiting from improved pricing.
Image / Rabobank
US demand is the wind in the sails of New Zealand‘s current beef pricing.
Lamb farmgate pricing is also strong, sitting at 20% above the 5-year average, though not quite at the record levels of spring 2022.
The North Island AgriHQ lamb price is sitting around NZD 8.70/kg cwt in late April, up NZD 2.55/kg cwt from the same weeks of April 2024.
The average export value for lamb in February reached NZD 13.48/kg cwt, helped by strong easter chilled trade.
This was the second-highest average monthly price recorded in NZD terms, just behind March 2022.
What to watch
US tariffs and retaliatory actions by impacted countries will remain a very important watch point here in New Zealand and across key global beef markets over the coming months.
Pleasingly, New Zealand is currently at the baseline US tariff rate of 10%, putting it on a level playing field with other big beef exporters like Australia.
US consumer demand remains strong, and reduced beef production and low lean trim domestic product suggest that US demand for high volumes of lean trim imports may continue despite extra costs to buyers.
Of course, the lower Kiwi dollar cannot be ignored as a contributing factor to our export returns in recent months.
But after nearly two years of challenges in the red meat sector as a whole, with sheep meat pricing seeing the bottom of the cycle through 2023 and 2024, no one is complaining.
Interest rates have fallen significantly over recent months too, which helps farming businesses on the cost side.
Further interest rate movements are another point to watch in 2025, alongside the “wild card” of global trade and geopolitics.
Overall, the hand that’s been dealt to New Zealand‘s sheep and beef farmers in 2025 looks strong and, if the sector plays its cards right, this is likely to help boost profitability in the red meat sector over the remainder of the season.
