The Government’s is at risk of missing its targeted reduction in violent crime and getting more students at expected curriculum levels.
The Government is today releasing its first quarterly report for its nine targets, including on crime and housing. It is also bringing in tougher sentencing rules to hold offenders to account.
Addressing media at today’s post-Cabinet press conference, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said the targets focused resource and accountability.
They are deliberately ambitious and the first report shows they will be challenging to achieve, he said.
There is good progress on reducing people in emergency housing, but one target that is at risk is having 20,000 fewer people being a victim of an assault, robbery or sexual assault. A June report found the number had increased 30,000 over the period the survey was captured.
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The report states it is still “feasible” targets concerning emergency department and elective treatment wait times, youth offending, Jobseeker benefits and student attendance will be achieved.
Achieving targets on emergency housing numbers and net greenhouse gas emissions is considered probable or on track as of the end of the June quarter.
In a week when Luxon is set to focus on law and order, his target to reduce the number of people experiencing violent crime by 20,000 has gone in the other direction.
In a statement, he said that was of “particular concern” and claimed it was due to previous Labour Government actions that “emboldened offenders” and “created a crime wave”.
The data was collected through the Crime and Victims’ Survey. The latest survey captured violent crime experienced between July 2022 and June this year.
As of June, 214,737 people had experienced violent crime. The Government’s target was 165,000.
The report, compiled by the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet [DPMC], classified the target as “at risk” of not being achieved.
The Government’s deadline to achieve the targets was 2030.
The same “at risk” classification was also given to the target of getting 80% of Year 8 students at or above their expected curriculum level in reading, writing and maths.
The latest data from Term 4 last year, also the target’s baseline, showed 22% of students were at curriculum in maths and 47% in reading.
The likelihood of having 75% fewer households in emergency housing was considered probable, with about 1000 fewer households since the target was established.
There had been a small improvement in ED wait times, with 70% of patients admitted or discharged within six hours - up from 68% but well short of the 95% target.
Wait times for elective treatment had worsened, with 56% of people waiting less than four months - down on the 62% baseline and heading away from its 95% target.
However, it was still considered feasible. DPMC’s report noted the Government’s interventions in health, including the appointment of a commissioner at Health NZ and the intention to maximise private sector capacity.
There’d been a slight uptick in youth crime, away from the 15% reduction target, which was still deemed feasible.
An extra 6400 people had taken up the Jobseeker benefit since the target was set. The Government intended to reduce the overall number (140,000) by 50,000.
Government plans to see tougher sentences handed down to offenders will be introduced at Parliament this week.
Many of the proposed changes expected in the Bill were announced in late June, and canvass capping the sentence discounts judges can apply at 40% and preventing repeat discounts for youth and remorse.
On Monday, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith also announced two aggravating factors would be added to the Bill:
These related to:
Goldsmith said these changes were about sending “a clear message social media cannot be a tool to glorify or celebrate the actions of callous individuals and nor should adults exploit children and young people in the commission of crimes.”
Other proposed changes to the sentencing system include:
Goldsmith said public confidence in the sentencing system had “diminished”.
“In recent years, there has been a concerning trend where the courts have imposed fewer and shorter prison sentences despite a 33% increase in violent crime.
“These changes will help ensure there are 20,000 fewer victims of violent crime by 2029, alongside reducing serious repeat youth offending by 15%.”
These changes are part of the Government’s wider law and order ambitions. The Government is also proposing to restore Three Strikes legislation and is piloting a military-style boot camp academy while the Gangs Bill is expected to pass its third reading this week – which includes a controversial new power that would allow courts to ban gang patches in the home.
Luxon thanked police for hosting him during his Saturday night ride-along. He said he came away with more respect for officers and it was a privilege to spend time with them.
Luxon held a media stand-up yesterday with Police Minister Mark Mitchell.
The pair spoke to media from Auckland Central police station yesterday to celebrate police data showing a 22% reduction in serious assaults in the Auckland CBD in the period from January to July this year compared to the same period last year.
There had been an 18% reduction in serious assaults resulting in injury in that time as well.
In May, Mitchell chaired the first of now regular meetings between Auckland Council, Kāinga Ora, the Ministry of Social Development, ratepayers’ groups, business associations and social service providers to develop a strategy to improve safety in the city.
He said the co-ordinated approach had led to 97 people being referred to accommodation, addiction and family wellbeing support between July 1 and September 10.
That came alongside efforts to reduce the use of emergency housing, with 68% fewer households in emergency housing in the CBD since May.
That was a reduction from 53 households to 17. Mitchell said it included the closing of two emergency motels.
Mitchell did not describe any link between emergency housing tenants and crime rates.
Luxon said emergency housing tenants often had complex issues and therefore needed support from social services.
Labour police spokeswoman Ginny Andersen said she was concerned about the Government’s approach to crime reduction.
“Pushing people out to the suburbs does not address the causes of crime.
“These people need help and the Government has so far spent a year in Government cutting funding from frontline services and is yet to announce what will fill the gap now that police are pulling back on mental health callouts.”
Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the NZ Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.
Labour wants the Govt to denounce the US attack as a breach of international law.