"Changes to provision could mean fewer people on a Jobseeker Support benefit move into study and less people access face-to-face learning," the Government was told. Photo / Mark Mitchell.
Officials warned the Government its de-merger of vocational education and polytechnics could lead to fewer beneficiaries choosing to study, and may see people spend longer on Jobseeker.
Proactively-released information noted there were forecasts that 257 qualifications would be paused or closed, and 620 fulltime jobs would be lost at the end of 2025.
A total of 10 polytechnics are returning to “regional governance” at the start of 2026, with the Government breaking apart the merged Te Pūkenga system.
A handful of polytechs will remain part of the grouped system as they work on financial sustainability plans.
A number of regional providers are said to be facing an “uncertain future,” with potential closures on the line after the directive for financial viability.
Documents considered by Cabinet in June show officials from both the Ministry of Social Development and Ministry of Education warned about the impacts to the Government’s Jobseeker reduction target.
The Greens say the advice is very explicit, showing the changes would “absolutely be counterproductive” to wanting to get more people in education and training.
Labour is also calling for all financial information about the de-merger to be released.
Meanwhile, Vocational Education Minister Penny Simmonds is adamant the Government is committed to support access to vocational education in all regions.
Cabinet was told a strong vocational education and training system supports progress towards the Government’s Jobseeker support reduction target.
Advice added there was a risk that potential changes to educational provision would have a “negative impact on benefit inflows in some regions,” if some are unable to access suitable learning.
The Ministry for Social Development is working towards reducing the number of people receiving Jobseeker by 50,000 people to 140,000 people by 2030.
But officials warned the changes could mean “fewer people on a Jobseeker Support benefit move into study, and less people access face-to-face learning.
“A potential reduction in VET [vocational education and training] graduates may mean some people are less protected from economic shocks and are more likely to spend a prolonged period on benefit,” Cabinet was told.
“Where face-to-face provision (at either vocational or foundational levels) is reduced due to cost-cutting at polytechnics, some learners may not be able to access their first-choice programme locally. This could result in learners choosing different programmes, studying online, relocating, or not studying,” officials added.
Advice also noted more than half of current trades academies rely on polytechnics for delivery, and closure of polytechnics could have a “substantial impact” on the delivery of these programmes.
Papers show the Minister for Social Development and Employment, and the Minister for Vocational Education will report back to Cabinet at the end of 2026, with updates to the impact this is having on learners.
It was determined those with low prior achievement, some disabled learners, and those with barriers to studying online would be most impacted by the changes.
Specifically, officials noted learners may have fewer educational opportunities, and would therefore be “at risk of becoming NEET,” meaning someone who is not in education, employment, or training.
Green Party tertiary education spokesman Francisco Hernandez said the forecasted job losses were “very concerning” and “devastating to the sector”.
“It’s really disruptive,” Hernandez told Newstalk ZB, adding he had heard from staff the disestablishment changes had been more significant compared to the changes to establish the merger.
On the potential Jobseeker impact, the Green MP said it was “really contrary to everything that the Government says they care about”. He also highlighted the fact the Government was looking to reduce benefit eligibility for young people, in the coming years.
“The Government is saying that they want young people to go into training or work, but if the polytechs are closing because of the lack of support, then how can they go into training or work? How can they get the skills that they need for potential jobs?” he asked.
Simmonds said the specific numbers around job losses and courses being paused were subject to change as “Te Pūkenga continues its financial improvement work and individual business units make decisions”.
Simmonds added the Government is “absolutely committed” to maintaining access to vocational education across all regions. She highlighted a $20 million Strategically Important Provision Fund had been established to support areas that may not otherwise be financially viable.
“Our goal is to give each polytechnic the autonomy to tailor provision to the needs of their region, with additional tools such as blended delivery, — something the old, centralised model simply didn’t allow,” the minister added in a statement.
The newly-released documents come after Newstalk ZB reported on a mid-March Treasury paper which warned the Government’s changes may not ease financial challenges.
Labour tertiary education spokesman Shanan Halbert has been behind calls for Simmonds to release financial information in this instance.
“The Government was quick to release the business case for the Waikato Medical School. I’ve been calling on the minister for months now, to release the financial information for all of us to understand her vocational training plan.”
He added the minister promised to come up with a better plan, but said “everything at the moment” points to things getting worse.
Meanwhile, in recent days, the Green Party has launched a petition to “end the cuts” to polytechnics. It has also written an open letter to the minister, saying there is an “extensive wave of staffing cuts, course disestablishments and even campus closures”.
Simmonds had previously confirmed she expected to have a clearer picture of different financial positions by October or November.
Azaria Howell is a multimedia reporter working from Parliament’s press gallery. She joined NZME in 2022 and became a Newstalk ZB political reporter in late 2024, with a keen interest in public service agency reform and government spending.