New poll: Left-wing parties could form Government, but close race predicted

A new poll shows a close race for power. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Centre-left parties could form a Government, according to the results of a new poll released today which shows gains for all parliamentary parties bar Act.

The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, conducted between August 31 and September 2, has Labour holding its position as the largest party, gaining 0.2 since last month’s poll and reaching 33.8%.

That compares to National, which is up 1.3, but sits just behind Labour on 33.1%. Of National’s current coalition partners, New Zealand First is up 0.3 to 8.1%, while Act has suffered a fall of 1.9 down to 6.7%.

Labour’s friends have both seen slight increases. The Greens have gained 0.9 to get to 10.7%, while Te Pāti Māori has increased 1.1 to 4.3%.

When looking at how this translates into seats in the House, the centre-left parties have 61 seats, while the right have 60 seats.

Labour would have 42 seats based on this poll, with the Greens getting 13 and Te Pāti Māori holding six.

National would receive 42 seats as well, while NZ First would have 10 and Act would have eight.

While current Prime Minister Christopher Luxon would lose the top job if the left took office, today’s poll shows a slight bump for him in the preferred-Prime Minister stakes.

He sits on 21.7%, up 1.5 since last month, while Labour’s Chris Hipkins has dropped 2.5 points to 17.7%. NZ First leader Winston Peters is up 2.7 points to 10.9%, the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick is up 0.8 to 8.8%, and David Seymour is down 2.5 points to 3.7%.

The cost of living remains the dominant issue for New Zealanders. Of the respondents, 27.5% said it’s their most important issue - up 3.1 points.

It’s followed by the economy more generally on 16.1% (down 4.6 points), then health on 11.1% (up 1.1), employment on 7.5% and taxes on 4.7%.

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population.

It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%. On the party vote question, 8.2% were undecided.

Jamie Ensor is a political reporter in the NZ Herald press gallery team based at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub press gallery office. He was a finalist this year for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.