New political poll predicts hung Parliament for NZ Election 2026

By Anneke Smith of RNZ

The race for Election 2026 appears to be on a knife-edge, with a new political poll predicting a hung Parliament.

The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll – taken between August 3-5 – comes after a string of negative headlines about the economy.

Labour has overtaken National as the largest party, gaining 2 points to 33.6%, while National drops 2.1 points to 31.8%.

The Greens are up 0.4 points to 9.8%, Act is down 0.5 points to 8.6%, New Zealand First is down 2 points to 7.8% and Te Pāti Māori down 0.3 points to 3.2%.

If an election were held today, the centre-right bloc would lose four MPs for a total 61 seats, while the centre-left bloc would gain four MPs and also reach a total 61 seats.

With neither bloc having the upper hand, it would be a hung Parliament.

The last Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll showed the coalition parties reasserting their lead with enough support for 65 seats, driven by a surge in support for New Zealand First.

Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick has gained a point in the preferred prime minister stakes. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Party vote

• Labour 33.6%, up 2 percentage points (43 seats)
• National 31.8%, down 2.1 (40 seats)
• Greens: 9.8%, up 0.5 (12 seats)
• ACT: 8.6%, down 0.5 (11 seats)
• NZ First: 7.8%, down 2 (10 seats)
• Te Pāti Māori: 3.2%, down 0.3 points (6 seats)

For the minor parties, Top is up 1.4 points to 2.6%, Outdoors and Freedom is up 1 point to 1.1% and Vision NZ is up 0.4 points on 0.4%.

Cost of living remains voters’ most important issue at 24.4% (+2.8 points), closely followed by the economy more generally at 20.7% (+1.6 points).

Health is the next largest issue on 10%, followed by employment on 6%.

Preferred prime minister

• Christopher Luxon: 20.2%, up 0.5
• Chris Hipkins: 20.2%, up 0.6
• Winston Peters: 8.2%, down 1.1
• Chlöe Swarbrick: 8%, up 1
• David Seymour: 6.2%, up 0.5

In preferred Prime Minister ratings, Christopher Luxon is up 0.5 points to 20.2% while Chris Hipkins is up 0.6 points to also sit at 20.2%.

Winston Peters is down 1.1 points to 8.2%, Chlöe Swarbrick is up 1 point to 8%, and David Seymour is up 0.5 points to 6.2%.

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population.

It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 6.2% were undecided on the party vote question.

Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand, which has resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (Ranz) industry body.

Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.