KEY POINTS:
John Key uses a cleverly worded mantra when discussing National's intention to borrow more and increase Government debt in order to build more infrastructure deemed vital for a modern economy: "Right now, New Zealand doesn't have a debt problem. It has a growth problem."
Right now, National has
both a debt problem and a trust problem.
The findings of Tuesday night's One News-Colmar Brunton poll may have surprised National's strategists. It was certainly not pretty reading for them.
The survey found 52 per cent of voters disagreeing with National's borrow-to-build plan against 39 per cent who agreed.
The TVNZ poll also had 50 per cent of respondents feeling National was not being open and honest about its intentions if it won the election, against 37 per cent who thought it was.
The poll is good news for Labour, seemingly vindicating its two-pronged attack which, first, castigates National for borrowing to fund tax cuts and, second, claims National has a hidden agenda to cut Government spending and slash public services once elected.
The findings suggest National's credibility has taken a knock from the clandestine tape-recording and subsequent publication of frank remarks by senior National MPs at a cocktail function before the party's annual conference.
So far, though, National's overall standing in the party vote has not been affected. But the poll indicates National's "soft" vote amounts to around a quarter of its current support.
While National's party-vote rating stands at 51 per cent, only 37 per cent of respondents believe the party is being honest about its plans for the future. These people are largely solid National. The remainder of National's current support might be backing National for now, but they clearly have their doubts about whether the party can be trusted.
Labour - already heartened by the gap between itself and National having closed from 26 points in June to 14 points two months later - will intensify its efforts to put even more doubt and worry in that grouping's minds.
To counter that, Key has been making "trust-building" statements - such as his promise to resign as Prime Minister if national superannuation is tampered with in any way which disadvantages pensioners.
He also made the valid point yesterday that voters will feel uncertain about National until they see more policy. The crucial policy will be that detailing National's tax cuts - and how National plans to fund them.
National has also suffered to some degree from the huge focus on Winston Peters and his party's finances, which added to National's own problems with covert taping has dominated politics for more than a month.
National went to some length at its conference to carefully outline its infrastructure policy and emphasise the extra capital investment funded from borrowing would have only minimal impact on the debt-to-GDP ratio. The party insists its ratio would be only 2 percentage points higher than Labour's - roughly 22 per cent against Labour's self-imposed limit of 20 per cent.
National has since tried to debate acceptable debt levels with Labour. But this was totally overshadowed by the Peters/secret donations brouhaha.
National's consequent frustration was presumably why Key yesterday blamed the poll finding on borrowing as flowing from people not understanding what the party planned to do, because they haven't heard enough about it.
All this is hardly reason for panic. But National clearly has some work to do.
