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Home / New Zealand / Politics

Election 2023: Chris Hipkins v Christopher Luxon in second leaders’ debate; new poll shows Nats need Winston Peters

By Derek Cheng & Claire Trevett
NZ Herald·
27 Sep, 2023 08:35 AM9 mins to read

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Focus Live: Hipkins and Luxon speak after leaders' debate

Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon have both pledged to keep the number of police higher than the number of gang members.

They also promised to lift 80,000 more children out of poverty by 2028, though Hipkins said Luxon’s plan to peg benefit levels to inflation rather than wages would increase poverty.

They each promised to lower the age for bowel cancer screening from 60 to 50, the same as in Australia, and 45 for some people.

And they promise to pay all nurses the same.

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The leaders of National and Labour both made the pledges during the second leaders’ debate tonight, moderated by Newshub’s Patrick Gower in front of an audience of 200 undecided voters.

The debate traversed a range of topics including the cost of living, law and order, the under-resourced health sector, falling education attainment, and how to breathe life into an economy with little wriggle room in coming years.

It followed a 1News Verian poll showing National and Act would need NZ First to form a government, the second poll this week to do so.

Both parties have already released most of their major policies, and with overseas voting starting and advanced voting beginning on Monday, the pressure was on Hipkins to shake things up and find some way to resonate with voters.

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Hipkins came out firing, and the debate was immediately a much more fiery affair than the first one.

“You haven’t said one thing you’d do differently,” Hipkins said as Luxon went through the boot camps for young offenders plan that the previous National Government did, with 80-odd per cent going on to reoffend.

“What you’re doing doesn’t work. There’s no evidence that will work ... you’re repeating the same mistake over and over again,” Hipkins said.

Luxon, who said his boot camps would be better, retorted at one point: “It’s not going to make great TV if we’re talking over each other. Calm down ... You like to say things but that doesn’t make it so.”

At one point Luxon said Hipkins needed a hug because of all his negativity.

“You don’t like to be challenged. If you answered questions I wouldn’t need to challenge you,” Hipkins replied.

When the debate turned to gangs, Luxon said told Hipkins: “I appreciate you’re coming out and having a bit of a fight.”

He said the gang members are voting for Labour, to which Hipkins said, “that’s nonsense”.

There are currently about 9000 gang members and 10,700 police, and they both said they promised to have more police than gang members.

Both parties have released a policy to increase the number of police by 300 over the next four years.

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Luxon said he would ban gang patches in public places but wouldn’t say if expected police to go up to gang members and rip the patches off them.

Hipkins asked him how police would identify gang members if they were patch-less.

On a scenario of a gang funeral, Luxon said he expected police to go after them while Hipkins said that would be dangerous and they should go after them following the end of the funeral.

Luxon said he didn’t think a teenager taking MDMA at a festival was a criminal, before back-tracking and saying they were a criminal.

Hipkins said it was a health issue and though they were a criminal under the law, he was open to reviewing drug laws.

Luxon had a go at Hipkins over the increase in government spending, but Hipkins said hundreds of millions of dollars had gone to superannuitants, health and education.

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“You’re saying those things are wasteful spending. That’s not wasteful spending.”

They also clashed on health targets.

“Your targets meant people missed out on health care,” Hipkins said, reading a letter revealing people were taken off waitlists so targets weren’t missed.

“Our targets saved lives,” Luxon replied.

Neither of them said the country was racist but Hipkins said Luxon wanted to work with people who are “race-baiting”.

He read out a statement from a NZ First candidate that both agreed was racist.

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“Christopher, you’re willing to work with these people,” Hipkins said.

Luxon said it was last resort to work with NZ First and its leader Winston Peters to change the government if necessary, but he wanted a National-Act coalition.

“You worked for him for three years,” Luxon said, to which Hipkins said: “And I’d never do it again.”

On tax, Luxon wouldn’t say if he would resign if he couldn’t raise the expected revenue from his foreign buyers tax.

Luxon said he was committed to delivering tax relief while Hipkins interjected: “You’re not answering the question.”

Neither committed to cutting fuel taxes though National wouldn’t add any further taxes this coming term.

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Hipkins said National’s Emissions Trading System would push petrol prices up, which Luxon rejected.

Hipkins also claimed that Luxon’s public service cuts would see thousands of public servants out of work by Christmas.

Luxon said certain public service chief executives would be asked to find 6.5 per cent in savings, but couldn’t give a number on how many jobs would be cut.

“Show us your numbers. You’ve got no numbers,” Hipkins said.

Luxon said he agreed with Labour’s policy to restrict vape stores around the country to 600 stores.

“That’s my policy, are you adopting it?” Hipkins asked Luxon.

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The first leaders’ debate was widely seen as dull and lacking in new information, with Luxon winning by default given he had more to lose and didn’t make any mistakes.

Labour has been roughly 10 percentage points behind National in recent polls, which has shifted more attention towards whether National and Act might need NZ First to have the numbers to change the government.

Earlier this week Luxon said he would pick up the phone to Peters if he needed NZ First to change the government.

Poll shows National needs Winston Peters to govern

A 1News Verian poll shows National has slipped further to 36 per cent - down 1 per cent - and would need NZ First to form a government.

NZ First was on 6 per cent, Labour was on 26 (down 1), the Greens were up one to 13, Act was steady on 12 per cent and Te Pāti Māori was on 2 per cent (down 1).

Luxon told 1News that he did not want people to think the election was a foregone conclusion. He said it was clear the majority of the country wanted change and they’d have to vote to achieve it.

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Hipkins told 1News he didn’t think Luxon had the political skills to get Act leader David Seymour and Peters to agree on anything.

Peters said “they need experience, they need accountability”.

National and Act would get 60 seats in Parliament on the poll’s results: one short of the 61 needed for a majority. The left bloc of Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori would be well short of a majority with 52 seats between them.

Hipkins and Luxon were still level pegging as preferred prime minister on 23 per cent.

It is Labour’s worst result in six years as it has continued to drop. However, Hipkins noted National was also now starting to drop back: “They’ve peaked.”

There were 11 per cent undecided or refused to say in the poll of 1002 eligible voters taken from September 23 to 26.

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In the last 1News Verian poll a week ago, National and Act would have been able to form a government with 61 seats.

National was on 37 per cent (down 2 points) and Act was at 12 per cent (up 2). NZ First had hit the 5 per cent mark.

Labour was on 27 (down 1), and the Green Party on 12 (up 2). Te Pāti Māori was on 3 per cent.

A Newshub Reid-Research poll earlier this week also had National and Act with 61 seats between them - and NZ First bumping over the 5 per cent threshold. That poll went to air hours after Luxon said he would pick up the phone to talk to Peters if he had to on election night: the first time he specifically ruled NZ First in as a potential governing option.

The second leaders’ debate between the two men vying to be the next prime minister kicks off at 7pm today.

Hipkins and Luxon have spent the afternoon away from the hustings and brushing up on their numbers ahead of the Newshub debate, which is being moderated by Patrick Gower.

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Both parties have already released most of their major policies, and with overseas voting starting today and advanced voting starting on Monday, the pressure will be on Hipkins to shake things up and find some way to resonate with voters.

The Herald will be providing live updates including from the post-debate interviews with each party leader.

The first leaders’ debate was widely seen as dull and lacking in new information, with Luxon winning by default given he had more to lose and didn’t make any mistakes.

Labour has been roughly 10 percentage points behind National in recent polls, which has shifted more attention towards whether National and Act might need NZ First to have the numbers to change the government.

Potential governing partnerships are sure to be raised in the debate, along with the issues that have worried voters the most including the cost of living, law and order, the under-resourced health sector, falling education attainment, house prices, inequality, climate change, and how to breathe life into an economy that has very little wriggle room in the coming years.

There will also be allegations of fiscal holes and lack of economic credibility, which Labour has sought to address with the release of its fiscal plan earlier today.

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Hipkins will be seeking to tap into the 53.8 per cent of voters who, according to the latest Newshub Reid Research poll, said they didn’t think National could pay for its tax cuts. National has refused to release the assumptions behind the numbers in its tax package, which has been described by economists as plausible, optimistic, and even “bullshit”.

It’s a line Hipkins has been running since National released its tax package, though whether it has been working in Labour’s favour is questionable.

Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.


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