Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says lockdowns are not needed at the moment, but will remain in the Government's back pocket in case they're needed for a new variant. Photo / Sylvie Whinray
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says lockdowns are not needed at the moment, but will remain in the Government's back pocket in case they're needed for a new variant. Photo / Sylvie Whinray
ANALYSIS:
Two years ago the country went into a nationwide lockdown and was told to "stay home, save lives".
Today, lockdowns seem very unlikely, even if there's a health justification for them.
"There's nothing that we are currently experiencing that suggests we'll need those ... but I think the entire world will be reserving the flexibility, should we see something dire.
"I don't think that's where most people's predictions are at the moment, but we all have to be prepared ... The truth is we don't know what this pandemic may produce next."
So what would trigger a lockdown?
New variants are inevitable. The unknown is whether they'll be transmissable enough to displace whatever variant is currently dominant, and if so, how virulent they'll be.
It's possible that whatever pushes Omicron into the background will be even more mild.
This is partly why New Zealand's Covid response compares favourably with the rest of the world. When case numbers skyrocketed, we were dealing with a milder variant in a highly vaccinated population.
The kind of variant that would trigger a lockdown would be one that's much deadlier, and where vaccines offered little protection against severe illness. It would amount to the same scenario Ardern faced two years ago, when failing to lock down could lead to thousands of deaths.
"The only circumstance I can envisage would be the emergence of a dangerous new variant that was gaining a foothold in New Zealand and putting us all at risk," epidemiologist Sir David Skegg told the Herald.
"In order to displace Omicron, the next variant - which will probably be called Pi – the next letter in the Greek alphabet - will need to be more transmissible and more capable of evading immunity from vaccination or natural infection. Evolutionary virologists advise that such a variant could be more or less virulent in causing human disease."
Covid-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank said while a deadlier and more infectious variant wasn't impossible, it seemed unlikely based on what we had seen so far.
"The general pattern seems to be that immunity against infection is not that great from one variant to another, and it tends to wane quite quickly," Plank said.
"But immunity against severe illness seems to be broader. If you've had a vaccine, or you've been infected with a previous variant, you've probably still got good protection against severe illness for a new variant."
Would a lockdown even work?
A lockdown only works if the public follow the rules, but the Team of Five Million is no longer what it was.
The very public 23-day occupation of Parliament remains fresh in people's minds. Thirty per cent in one Horizon poll supported the protest.
It's a similar proportion to the 28 per cent who, in the same poll, were opposed to vaccine mandates. This opposition has increased over time, as has opposition to MIQ after countless stories of Kiwis who couldn't come home.
Auckland's deserted Southern Motorway from two years ago, on day one of the first national Covid-19 lockdown. Photo / New Zealand Herald
Skegg said if a new variant was putting lives at risk, there would probably be a high level of public compliance.
"In fact, the public would probably be demanding a lockdown."
Any initial reluctance to follow the rules could also be overcome if, like two years ago, people were shocked into a state of fear by images of the virus wreaking havoc around the world.
"We wouldn't be watching Italy and the bodies piling up there. We would be Italy," Plank said.
"That would be a situation where I think we would have to lock down, and people would see the need for it."
But with borders gradually reopening to all, New Zealand may lose the luxury of watching how a new variant affects other parts of the world before it lands here. That luxury has previously given the Government more time to get ready for inevitable community transmission here.
It might still unfold in that way, but it's now more likely for a new variant to arrive here at the same time as other parts of the world.
And if bodies were already piling up, the new variant would already be widely circulating.
"It would already likely be too late to eliminate it," Plank said.
A belated, compliant lockdown would still reduce transmission, but how long would it need to be maintained? Until a new variant-specific vaccine was developed?
"Hopefully this is all extremely unlikely."
Epidemiologist Sir David Skegg says it's right to keep lockdowns in the toolbox, even if their future use is 'very unlikely'. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The new quasi-lockdown
New Zealand is already in quasi-lockdown, with hundreds of thousands of people in isolation.
The Ministry of Health says there are 118,631 known active cases, and a further 127,168 household contacts who are all legally required to isolate.
These are largely self-reported numbers, so actual case and household contact numbers will be much higher.
There are also symptomatic people who are staying home even if they test negative, and others who are choosing to stay home as a precaution, at least until the Omicron peak has fully crested, because for instance they live with a vulnerable person.
People isolating has had huge impact as workplaces, schools, hospitals and households have all had to adapt, while reduced foot traffic has been hard on eateries, movie theatres and retail shops across the country.
This will continue, because "stay home if sick" remains a key message.
"The most basic public health intervention for an infectious disease is to try and identify people who are infectious and keep them away from others," Plank said.
"Whether they've got Covid, the flu, a cold, we don't want those people to go to work and infect other people. Symptoms trump test results."
Skegg echoed this, saying sick people should stay home even if isolation requirements are lifted in the future.
Covid-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank says isolation - the new quasi-lockdown - will still be a key part of the public health protections going forward. Photo / Supplied
But this grip on everyday life will loosen as the Omicron peak subsides, and fewer people need to isolate.
This is because millions of Kiwis would have caught Omicron, and you don't need to be tested for 28 days after you've tested positive.
You're still legally required to isolate if you catch the virus again after that 28 days is up, but the chances of reinfection are low for the following three months.
The number of infections will continue to ebb and flow, and even increase over winter.
But when the level of infection drops, people will feel more inclined to go out - especially if they've been boosted or were recently infected.
A return to pre-pandemic levels of patronage is unlikely for quite some time, but with the international tourism tap being turned back on, there will be some reprieve for Covid- and lockdown-ravaged businesses.
