Temperatures in the Bay of Plenty during the next few days are predicted to soar well above the average high for the month.

Niwa National Climate Centre principal scientist of forecasting Chris Brandolino predicted the temperature across Tauranga and the Western Bay of Plenty today would sit in the lower 20s but rise to at least 23C tomorrow .

On Thursday, temperatures could reach the mid- to upper-20s, he said.

Mr Brandolino said the average maximum temperatures for November was 20.1C.


"If you like warm weather [today] will be a nice, warm spring day," Mr Brandolino said.

"Wednesday and Thursday would be typical mid-summer day temperatures."

Mr Brandolino said temperature predictions for the region between November and January were above average.

There was also an equal chance that rainfall would be equal or above normal, he said.

For the month of November the average temperature is 15.8C, with a mean maximum temperature of 20.1C. December's average is 18C, with a mean maximum of 22.3C and January's average is 19.4C with a mean maximum of 24C.

"If you only hit 23C on Wednesday, that is still a degree hotter than the December high.

"Twenty-four would be your typical January high. Tauranga's maximum temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be typical of mid-summer averages."

Mr Brandolino said the temperatures were warming up because there were pockets of hot air moving across to New Zealand from Australia.

"That will be shunted in our direction. We also have a pretty sizable high-pressure system coming through. It's situated right over the New Zealand area and that is going to provide us with sunshine.

"It's a little summer preview," he said.

Sea temperatures were also sitting at about 15C to 16C, which have been above-average over the winter, on the back of last summer.

Mr Brandolino said locals should enjoy the warm weather whiled it lasted with cooler temperatures forecast to set in for the weekend.

"The weather will be with us through the week until Friday, we will go from warmer than average, to colder than average. It won't be brutally cold but after the warmer weather it will certainly be noticeable."

Even colder temperatures could arrive early next week, too, he said.

Local Jim Anderson was enjoying the sun yesterday but thought it was slightly colder than this time last year.

"Last year I had the first swim in Pilot Bay on the 18th of November. Its starting to warm up quite nicely but I haven't been in yet this year".

Predictions for the November-to-January Bay of Plenty season:

Temperatures are most likely to be above average (55% chance).
Rainfall totals are equally likely to be in the near normal (40% chance) or above normal (40% chance) range.
Soil moisture levels are most likely to be near normal (45% chance).
River flows are equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal (40% chance).