The latest TV3 poll could see either National or Labour forming a Government.
But Labour could do only with the support of four other parties.
National could do so with the support of just one other party, either the Maori Party or New Zealand First.
National would be able to form a Government very similar to the current one, with the support of the Maori Party, Act and United Future on confidence and supply.
Labour would need both the Maori Party and New Zealand First, plus the Greens and Internet Mana.
National's party vote has gone up in the poll by 1.4 points to 46.4 per cent in the past week.
Labour has gone down 0.5 to 25.9 per cent; the Greens are down 0.9 to 12.6 per cent; New Zealand First is down 0.5 to 5.8 per cent; the Conservatives are down by 0.4 to 4.2 per cent; the Maori Party is up by 1.3 to 2 per cent; Internet Mana is down 0.4 to 1.7 per cent; Act is up by 0.3 to 0.6; United Future is down 0.3 to 0.1.
Prime Minister John Key has risen as preferred Prime Minister by 3.7 points to 45.1. Labour leader David Cunliffe is up by 0.3 to 11.4.
The poll of 1000 respondents was conducted between August 26 and September 1.
Judith Collins resigned as Justice Minister on August 30.
It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.