Mike Hosking: My call on the next Prime Minister

Opinion

This week Prime Minister John Key resigned. Here's how we've seen events unfold since.

On Monday Key quits - cue shock and awe and retrospectives and platitudes.

On Tuesday came the speculation, rumours and the sense that Bill English is your man.

But then Johnathan Coleman comes to the party to make sure it's a contest and by the end of the day Judith Collins is in as well.

Amy Adams rules herself out of leadership, but she's still a possibility for deputy.

Wednesday is deputies day - Simon Bridges backs English and wants to be his second in charge. Then in comes Paula Bennett, she wants to be the same as Bridges.

This is trouble. This is where the factions form and the resentment builds when one of them loses.

We still haven't heard anything from Coleman, who's his deputy? Who wants to stand with him?

What about Bridges and Bennett - do they want to be deputy if Collins or Coleman win?

And speaking of Collins, who's her deputy?

So this is what it looks like for Monday when the votes comes around - English wins and Bennett is his partner.

Why?

Because they don't want to take a punt on Coleman, and Bennett balances the argument that English is a has-been. Mind you, so does Bridges, but Bennett has the female card in her favour.

For all those who want "generational" change, Bennett is it. She is also likeable and affable and "Key"-like. So you if you are "touch and go" on English, Bennett balances all that out.

Also it allows her the chance to polish her CV for when English falls over because he shouldn't have been picked in the first place.

The lesson here is, if in life you're faced with a "Key"-type scenario you don't want to be the replacement, you want to be the replacement's replacement, and that's Bennett.

All of this is predicated of course on no other names getting tossed in.

Come on in, Steven Joyce. I hope he runs but it seems unlikely given the word is English has the numbers by quite the margin.

But Joyce would be a better version of English, highly competent, big brain, upbeat and aspirational for the country.

He doesn't have the interpersonal skills of Key but he can be entertaining; I've been at events where he's genuinely funny.

If he doesn't run he's finance minster, and that's no bad thing.

The bad thing would be Coleman winning, which would see English quit, and although he shouldn't be leader he is a great money man and would be a massive loss.

Not that I don't want Coleman to win. If you want to take a punt of the three, Coleman is your bloke - if Joyce doesn't show up.

So the stable predictable thing is English for PM, Bennett for deputy and Joyce for finance.

Not my ideal, but safe. But is it enough for election year? That's what makes it so fascinating.

Mike Hosking hosts the Mike Hosking Breakfast on Newstalk ZB