John McClure: Changing the way we look at natural disasters

The road ahead looks strewn with danger but there is another way to look at things. Photo / Kaipara District Council, File

OPINION

Many New Zealanders will have been grateful for the Easter holiday to unwind and cast a hopeful eye on the future.

But as the recovery continues from the devastating floods on the east coast and in Auckland, it’s natural that some people may have a mindset closer to despair than hope. The forces of nature’s whims can seem overwhelming and uncontrollable, and it’s easy to feel helpless.

As an academic psychologist, I’ve spent decades studying how people view natural disasters, and how that impacts their preparedness the next time one strikes.

Our research shows that despite the powerful and unpredictable forces at play, a lot remains in our own control – and the key lies in understanding what actions give a basis for hope.

Illustration / Rod Emmerson

This is perhaps clearest with earthquakes. People see the recent events in Turkey and Syria as uncontrollable disasters that cause thousands of deaths and flatten buildings and homes.

But although earthquakes are the triggers for this harm, they are not the sole cause of the outcomes, or even the most important. It’s the shonky buildings that kill people in an earthquake, not the earthquake itself.

How many people have been killed by earthquakes in New Zealand? I have posed this question to students many times over the years, and they usually guess it’s somewhere between 500-700. But it’s quite possible no one has been “killed by an earthquake” in New Zealand.

Yes, people have been killed by poorly constructed buildings shaken by earthquakes, such as the CTV building in Christchurch. But if built to good standards, buildings resist and absorb the force of even powerful earthquakes. This has been shown in Japan, where rigorous building codes mean structues have been able to withstand massive earthquakes.

In the case of a large building like the Wellington Town Hall, bringing it up to building code is expensive. But New Zealand does not have large numbers of historic buildings – and in the case of new buildings, the added cost is not huge.

Sometimes, small expenses may save high costs in earthquakes, as when companies invest in backing up their data, or when liquor stores put a lip on the edge of wine shelves to prevent bottles from smashing on the floor. Homeowners can ensure their house is properly attached to its foundations.

If we take specific actions like these, this lessens our risk and helps us overcome the overwhelming helplessness that we feel in relation to natural disasters.

The recent cyclones on the east coast and Auckland comprised unprecedented levels of rainfall and, to many of us, will have seemed totally uncontrollable.

But while these recent cyclones have still to be analysed scientifically, climate scientists have calculated that both the frequency and intensity of these events are increasing due to greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere.

These emissions are not uncontrollable – they can be reduced by switching to renewable energy sources like wind and solar, which are increasingly efficient and affordable.

In addition, while the role of excess forestry slash is debated by some in the industry, this clearly requires closer examination and regulation, particularly on the east coast and other areas with steep slopes. We have to counter any commercial interests that exploit the planet in ways that are harmful to the planet and ourselves.

John McClure. Photo / Supplied

Another way we can mitigate the effects of extreme events is to apply zoning that prevents people from building houses in vulnerable locations. After the 2010-2011 earthquakes, Christchurch was rezoned with a large red zone where people cannot build houses. This shows what should be done before a hazard occurs, rather than after.

Research shows our human psychology means we often learn the hard way. We often focus on risks that are less likely to harm us and overlook risks and hazards that may be devastating.

New Zealand is seen as an individualistic culture where people mostly look at their own goals and needs.

But the response to the cyclone damage on the east coast shows the value of being part of a community, with heroic actions to rescue stranded people and marae serving as refuges, providing free meals and beds for those who have lost their homes.

Climate change is a particularly tricky challenge, as it reflects not only local regulations and lifestyles but the activities of the whole world. This can increase our feelings of helplessness, so the issue must be handled at this global level as well as the local level.

But that fact is poor justification for inaction locally.

If each country waits for everyone else to act, climate change will accelerate and the effects will be disastrous. The need for action is urgent, but every action that lessens the degree of climate change makes a difference.

Crucially, taking action – no matter how small – serves to counter our feelings of helplessness. And this means we can edge towards creating a better world.

- John McClure is an emeritus professor of psychology at Victoria University of Wellington – Te Herenga Waka. He has researched risks and hazards for 30 years.