Anna Howe, University of
Canterbury senior lecturer in epidemiology, told The Front Page she thinks there is community transmission and we’re sitting in an “extremely precarious position”.
“It’s just a case of waiting a few more weeks, probably to see how bad it’s going to get.
“Measles is one of our most infectious diseases, and so in an unvaccinated population, one person can potentially make 12 to 18 other people sick,” she said.
To prevent transmission once the virus has been introduced, a population immunity of around 95%, evenly distributed throughout the community, is needed.
“At the moment, our childhood schedule provides MMR at 12 and 15 months. So, we use our 24-month coverage milestone as an indicator ... coverage is sitting at 82%.
“That coverage is not uniform across the community, even at 82%. We have areas, like Northland and Lakes, that have got really low coverage. They’re down at sort of 62% and 73%.
“Then we have other areas in New Zealand ... Hutt Valley, Capital and Coast, and Canterbury have 90% coverage,” she said.
In 2019, the country experienced its largest measles outbreak since 1997, with 2185 cases notified nationwide.
Almost 70% of cases had never been vaccinated, and 35% were hospitalised. Measles imported from NZ resulted in 5700 cases in Samoa, including 1800 hospitalisations and 83 deaths from measles, mostly children under 5 years old.
“It’s horrifying that we were responsible for such a horrific event, and we have a responsibility as caretakers and supporters of our Pacific Nations to make sure that’s not happening,” Howe said.
Listen to the full episode to hear more about:
- The importance of travel links
- Comparisons to the 2019 outbreak
- Causes of low coverage
- Lessons from Covid
- What you can do to stop the spread.
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
