Election battle lines are slowly being drawn – Ryan Bridge

We can expect to hear a lot more from National and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon on crime. Photo / Mark Mitchell

THE FACTS

• Crime is likely to be a key election issue again, with National outpolling Labour, highlighting Labour’s perceived weakness.
• The Official Cash Rate is near neutral at 3.25%.
• National has focussed on crime policy lately, while Labour emphasises cost of living.

You know immediately when something makes good political sense.

You can usually tell, not by listening to a minister sell it, but by listening to the Opposition oppose it.

Crime is the Government’s topic du jour this week.

It’s one of a shrinking number of election issues on which National still currently outpolls Labour.

So, it’s no wonder they’ve pulled out all the stops after a few weeks of shaky results and a fair amount of time spent on defence.

The problem for Labour with crime is simple: nobody trusts them. The facts are as follows: crime went nuts. Labour’s policy? Cut the prison population. Sure, there’s more to it than that, but this is clearly how voters feel.

Which is what is making this such a hard week for Labour, not the Greens and TPM, who sing a different song on law and order, and for Chris Hipkins.

How do you credibly stand up and argue against longer sentences for thugs who bash first responders? How do you oppose getting tough on coward punches? How do you oppose on-the-spot fines for people stealing booze from the supermarket?

The answer for Labour so far has been to continue to oppose these things. They have come out against almost every single change.

And that plays into the perception they’re still weak on crime.

That they haven’t been to the gym to get stronger, tougher and meaner. They’ve been at the salon painting their nails, feeling sorry for all the misunderstood baddies who just need a big wraparound hug.

Of course, this problem could be solved if we knew anything about what Labour is planning, policy-wise.

But Chippy’s strategy is going to be one of shock and awe – holding cards very close to the chest until the election.

I asked Hipkins on my Herald NOW breakfast show this week about Labour’s record on crime and he was adamant they were on the right track but Covid simply got in the way.

The problem for Labour with crime is simple: nobody trusts them. Photo / Getty Images

I wonder how this level of accountability will go down with voters?

I asked Chloe Swarbrick this week whether it was okay to steal food if you’re hungry. She refused to answer the question, instead saying that she would not give “soundbites”.

Meanwhile, her colleague Tamatha Paul, the MP singularly most likely to re-elect a coalition Government, was happy to dish out soundbites promoting food theft like it was some sort of God-given right.

Put these pieces together and you can understand why National’s picking this scab. It’s fertile ground.

Cost of living is proving a much harder dial to shift for the right. Not because the numbers haven’t returned to more normal-looking levels – they have. Inflation is 2.5%. The Official Cash Rate is near neutral at 3.25%. But recent surveys show voters aren’t feeling it yet. The onset delay is hurting National, with Labour overtaking the leaderboard on a king-hit issue.

The battle lines are slowly being drawn and we can expect to hear a lot more from National on crime and a lot more from Labour on the cost of living.