Labour is miles ahead. The Greens and Act are going to easily crest the 5 per cent threshold.
So many people are voting early that's it's impossible for Act and National to catch up. No one else will win a seat. Don't waste your vote. Give it to the party and the candidate you like best. Even under MMP following your principles over tactical voting is always best.
A post-election Labour-led government will have a formal governing arrangement with the Greens whether or not they need them. This will protect Labour from criticism by activists wanting more and faster, the Greens will be ignored when Labour wishes, and the government will have a comfortable working majority to do what it wants.
Labour's campaign has been solid, professional and well-organised with a ruthless focus on Jacinda Ardern (not 'Labour') and a clear message: 'stable government to keep you safe against divided National's economic stumbling'.
John Key used to avoid commitments by describing the problem. Jacinda Ardern avoids them by voicing her values. Climate, children, better services are all easy concerns to share.
National has struggled to make the obvious point that, for all the gestures, the climate, poverty, homelessness, and children will be in much the same state in three year's time as they were six years before. Such is the tepid policy offer from Labour in this campaign, they won't have a mandate to do anything other than 'keep calm and carry on.'
Just as Labour wasted its nine years in opposition, National haven't done the work. Lazy.
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It's not Judith Collins' fault. She seems to be the only one trying. When she won the leadership, she rocketed out an agenda-setting effort every day until her momentum was broken by one of the Strong Team. By this week, the party had nothing new for her to announce so they organised a disastrous walkabout. Her own minders set up her photo opportunity in front of a shop sign reading 'Longshot.' Amateurs.
So many MPs in this parliament have been anonymous and ineffectual. But I haven't heard of any Labour backbenchers in this term emailing colleagues with an attack on the leadership. We know about the email targeting Judith because another of the Strong Team leaked it to television news the day after early voting started. Treachery.
Sloppy policy work, shambolic candidate selections, weak campaign themes, an unelectable Strong Team that doesn't even trust each other.
Campaigns tell us whether parties are ready. National's campaign tells us they don't deserve to govern. They won't.
• Josie Pagani is executive director of the Council for International Development.