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Home / New Zealand

Election 2014: Decision Time

NZ Herald
19 Sep, 2014 05:00 PM3 mins to read

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In a few hours the votes will be counted and results will be in.

In a few hours the votes will be counted and results will be in.

In a few hours, the votes will be counted and New Zealanders will see how the cards fall and who is likely to form the next Government.

Will National win enough votes to govern alone? Will the Conservatives cross the 5 per cent threshold and boost the right bloc, or will votes for them be wasted?

Will Hone Harawira hold Te Tai Tokerau and potentially bring in a few MPs to help the left bloc? The polls closed at 7pm and preliminary results were expected to be released over the next few hours.

It has been a tumultuous and unprecedented election campaign that threw many curve balls into play - Dirty Politics, Judith Collins' ministerial resignation, and claims of mass surveillance to name but a few.

Through it all, National's core support held firm in the polls, and it will expect to win the largest share of the votes.

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One of the most memorable quotes of the campaign came from Kim Dotcom about John Key's seemingly impenetrable popularity: "He could probably survive shooting little kittens in his garden with a shotgun, even if there is picture evidence of that. It's a mystery. I can't understand it."

In 2008, after a campaign dominated by the Teapot Tapes, National gained 47 per cent, a sizeable lead over Labour on 27.5 per cent and the Greens on 11 per cent. New Zealand First returned from the political wilderness with 6.6 per cent.

The Conservatives gained 2.65 per cent, but failed to win an electorate seat and did not make it into parliament.

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No other party made it past 2 per cent in 2008, though Act, United Future and Mana all returned with one electorate MP, and the Maori Party won three electorate seats.

The 2008 results are remarkably similar to the last Herald-Digipoll, which had National on 48 per cent, Labour on 25.9, the Greens on 11, NZ First on 8.4, and the Conservatives on 3.3.After the count tonight, negotiations for governing agreements will take place.

The official vote count will not be declared until October 4, which will include the counting of special votes.

Speaking ahead of tonight's Internet Party event at Auckland's Viaduct, party chief executive Vikram Kumar said all eyes were on Te Tai Tokerau, where Mr Harawira is expected to have a tight race on his hands against Labour's Kelvin Davis.

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Should Mr Harawira fail to retain the seat he has held since 2005, it is unlikely the Internet-Mana Party will gain enough of the party vote to enter Parliament."

I actually think [Mr Harawira] will win quite comfortably. I'd say it would be somewhat similar to what happened last time in terms of numbers.

"But Kelvin Davis is a very competent and well-liked person so he is capable of creating an upset."

Mr Kumar would not be drawn on how much of the party vote he expected Internet-Mana to attain tonight.

"When you're talking the small percentages ... margins of error start to come into it so it's really hard to know by going on the polls.

"Prime Minister John Key's wife Bronagh will join her husband at the National Party election-night event tonight wearing the same designer whose work has been labelled "ugly" by embattled National MP Judith Collins.

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A spokeswoman for Mr Key said Mrs Key would wear an outfit in "blue tones" by Auckland fashion designer Adrienne Winkelmann.

Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei also favours Winkelmann, much to the chagrin of some of her parliamentary colleagues.

Her choice of clothes has been publicly attacked by government ministers Anne Tolley, Chris Finlayson and Ms Collins.

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