Today may be officially the first day of summer but the weather has not been behaving as it did last year.
November was a strange mix of summer warmth and winter chills, unlike last year when the weather turned hot at Halloween and stayed that way throughout November and December.
That was attributable to warmer than usual temperatures in the Tasman Sea, which is also the case this year.
But oddly, the warmth from the sea has not produced the calm, settled air that it normally would.
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Advertise with NZME.Climate scientists told the Herald this week the ocean might not "couple" with the atmosphere over the next few months for some reason. They are forecasting temperatures near or above the summer average with normal rainfall.
Which is good news for farmers, they will not have to reduce stock in preparation for drought as they were doing last summer, and it is good news for electricity suppliers.
Until November, some observers were warning of low lake levels after this year's mild winter and dry early spring. But November's rain has quietened them.
Behind all weather conjecture these days is the sense that rapid climate change is upon us and extreme condition are going to be more frequent.
Across the Tasman storm have just battered Sydney and 100 bush fires have started in Queensland. Here, November has been decidedly strange, though better on balance than it used to be.
There is every prospect December too will be warmer, and often hotter, than it usually was. But do not forget your umbrella.
