National isn’t running away with the election but its polling advantage has been stable lately and several polls have shown that leader Christopher Luxon has closed a once-wide gap to Labour leader, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins.
The only question mark about the trend is that last week’s polls did not cover the fallout from National’s tax policy and Labour’s dental care promise.
Hipkins needs something positive from tomorrow’s Pre-Election Fiscal and Economic Update. He has said that he’s confident it will show the Government is on target to meet its economic goals.
But maybe Labour needs a couple more rabbits to pull out of the hat to go with a surprise extension of free dental care to people aged 18 to 30. Yesterday the party launched a pledge card of nine priorities.
At the moment it looks as though whatever doubts voters might have over Luxon personally, National generally, and the likely new coalition, are drowned out by a willingness to give the opposition a go.
A sense of relief at change on election night for some swing voters might be short-lived as there could be a messy post-election period. The basic issues of what the country is dealing with also won’t have changed. Next year is still likely to be tough economically, while the war in Ukraine and intense weather disasters will be ongoing and expensive sources of global instability.
Uncertainty about whether the funds will be there for National’s pledges haven’t gone away, and tomorrow’s announcement gives the Government another chance to stir that pot.
Act is currently a headline-generator. Leader David Seymour suggested the party might consider a confidence-only arrangement with National if in power. The party has lost its fifth candidate in two months. And then there’s Seymour’s quirky list of imagined supporters.
It’s up to voters to sort out the theatre and posture from factors that are more meaningful. And a lot of voters will have made up their minds by now. The parties that have seen their support swell are the smaller ones: Act, the Green Party and New Zealand First.
People’s personal experience of their work situation, cost of living, health, crime and the past pandemic will influence what they do.
The Government is a known quantity. As the election gets closer, the people and their policies who hope to take over in still-challenging times should come under more scrutiny.
