If estimated times count for anything, Sunday's Fagan Motors Wairarapa marathon could come down to a battle royal between two runners, Lower Hutt's Brian Garmonsway and Masterton's Graeme Butcher.
Garmonsway, 29, is very much an unknown quantity at the marathon but has been performing well enough over shorter distances lately to
suggest he is capable of finishing close to his predicted time of 3hrs.
Butcher, 45, is an old hand at marathons, having won the Wairarapa marathon title five times already. He has a best time over the two laps of the Pakaraka circuit of 2hrs 44mins but there is good reason for him estimating a much slower time of 3hrs 5mins for Sunday.
Currently in the midst of training for an ultra-marathon (100km) in Christchurch in November, Butcher's training has seen him regularly reach 200km a week, so while stamina won't be a problem a lack of speed work will almost certainly count against him.
The marathon, which will start outside the Makoura College gates at 7am, had attracted a field of 35 by midweek and the favourite for the women's section is Ingrid Frost, a 41-year-old from Auckland who has placed in the top three in the Wairarapa event before.
Staged in conjunction with the marathon will be a half-marathon walk (8am), half-marathon run (9am) and 10km run or walk (9.30am).
Last year's winner, Dougal Thorburn, will be expected to be too slick in the half-marathon run. His predicted time is 1hr 10min. One of his main rivals could be Tony Price of Masterton, whose past history includes a remarkable 10 wins in the Wairarapa marathon. Another local in Doug Johnston should also be to the fore, along with Aubrey Rota and Dave Parsons, both of Wellington
Among the leading contenders for the women's half-marathon will be Marion Hilder, of Palmerston North, and Katie Fenton, a promising youngster from Lower Hutt. Both have estimated times around the 1hr 40mins mark.
Overall entries for the four events are expected to tally over 350 with the 10km run or walk the most popular of them It will probably draw a field of around 200.
