As Saudi Crown Prince visits Washington, what’s New Zealand’s strategy for the Gulf? - Geoffrey Miller

This week’s visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington is the first such visit in nearly eight years. Photo / Getty Images

THE FACTS

• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is visiting Washington DC this week.
• New Zealand’s exports to the Gulf Cooperation Council exceeded $3 billion, driven by demand for quality food products.
• US President Donald Trump travelled in May to Saudi Arabia.

This week’s high-profile visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to Washington DC is another reminder of the enduring centrality of the Gulf.

The trip by MBS reciprocates US President Donald Trump’s travel in May to Saudi Arabia, the first scheduled foreign trip of his second term. The tour echoed Trump’s inaugural call on Riyadh during his first term in 2017. But this time around, Trump also visited Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), two smaller, yet increasingly powerful Gulf states.

Still, this week’s visit by MBS to Washington is particularly noteworthy because it is the first such visit in nearly eight years. US-Saudi relations cooled after the controversial killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in late 2018 and the subsequent transition to a Joe Biden administration. However, in mid-2022, relations were effectively restored when President Biden memorably “fistbumped” the Saudi Crown Prince in Jeddah – a move that also served to clear the air for other Western countries.

Initially, Biden’s renewed interest in the Gulf region – despite his early ambitions to recentre US foreign policy on the Indo-Pacific – was driven by Western concerns over energy supplies following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. However, since then, the Gulf states have only underlined their indispensability in broader geopolitical terms.

Qatar played a key role in mediating a ceasefire to the war in Gaza, while Oman facilitated new rounds of talks on the Iranian nuclear programme earlier this year. Meanwhile, the UAE has helped to broker several Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchanges, with another apparently on the table this month. And early in 2025, Saudi Arabia hosted delegations from Ukraine, Russia and the United States, in a bid to end the wider war.

For New Zealand, the six Gulf countries have also become increasingly essential – especially in trade, but also in wider strategic terms, as shown in just-completed PhD research by this author.

The six states that make up the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – are now collectively New Zealand’s sixth-biggest export market. In the year ending in June 2025, exports to the GCC crossed the $3 billion mark for the first time, up from just $1.75b in 2021. The Gulf states have operated as a customs union since 2003.

Food security is a major concern in the Gulf states, where a harsh desert climate means most food products must be imported to feed a growing population that now exceeds 60 million people. With the Gulf states having an appetite for quality and the wealth to pay for it, New Zealand’s dairy, meat and fruit products are highly sought-after, typically commanding premium prices in supermarkets in Dubai, Doha, Riyadh and other capitals across the region. Uncertainty created by this year’s US tariffs has only made the Gulf market more essential for New Zealand producers.

A new Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) trade deal with the UAE, which came into force in August, is likely to see exports rise even further. Meanwhile, the implementation of a wider free trade agreement (FTA) with the broader GCC should provide an additional boost to bilateral trade. Negotiations on the GCC FTA were concluded at a ceremony held in Qatar in late 2024.

More broadly, the study found that New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf states have been quietly deepening across multiple sectors over the course of a generation.

Most visibly, ministerial visits in both directions have grown in frequency and intensity. The research identified more than 60 visits made by New Zealand ministers to the GCC since then Foreign Minister Phil Goff travelled to the region in January 2001, a trip that included the first-ever visit to the UAE by a New Zealand Foreign Minister.

New Zealand Trade Minister Todd McClay made at least five visits to the Gulf in 2024 alone. Photo / Maryana Garcia

A generation on, New Zealand Trade Minister Todd McClay made at least five visits to the Gulf in 2024 alone, many of which were focused on securing the two new trade agreements. For his part, Foreign Minister Winston Peters also called on Saudi Arabia and the UAE in early 2025, while Prime Minister Christopher Luxon went to Abu Dhabi in January.

In the other direction, the study uncovered more than 30 high-level visits to New Zealand by high-level Gulf officials in the 21st century. Recent prominent examples include the 2024 visits by the Qatari Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, and the UAE’s Minister of State for Foreign Trade Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi.

The efforts of individuals in championing relations between New Zealand and the Gulf have been considerable. Today, the achievements of Todd McClay stand out. But McClay’s endeavours built on the initial work of Labour’s Phil Goff, as well as later contributions such as those made by National Party’s Murray McCully.

McCully, one of nearly 50 key figures across both New Zealand and the Gulf who were interviewed for the study, served as New Zealand’s Foreign Minister from 2008-17. He recalled developing a close friendship with UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who made repeated visits to New Zealand, including for the Rugby World Cup in 2011.

Despite some success, McCully says New Zealand’s ties with the Gulf remain “undercooked”. Indeed, the study found many areas of untapped potential. For example, GCC investment levels in New Zealand are meagre, paling in comparison with the billions of dollars invested by Singapore. The Gulf states are home to some of the world’s biggest sovereign wealth funds, which are keen to invest in infrastructure projects.

Still, McCully played a key role in expanding New Zealand’s diplomatic footprint in the Gulf, opening a mission in Abu Dhabi in 2011 that has helped to keep the bilateral fires burning with the UAE. The post complemented an existing embassy in Saudi Arabia that New Zealand opened in the mid-1980s.

Murray McCully says New Zealand’s ties with the Gulf remain “undercooked”. Photo / Mark Mitchell

In the other direction, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE all opened embassies in Wellington in the mid-2010s. This year marks both the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the UAE’s embassy in New Zealand and the 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations with Abu Dhabi. Meanwhile, the 50th anniversary of formal diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia is coming up in 2027.

Military diplomacy has also increasingly been a driver of bilateral relations between New Zealand and the Gulf. Since the 9/11 attacks, military bases in the Gulf states – particularly the UAE, but also Bahrain and at times Qatar – have often functioned as hubs for New Zealand troops serving on multilateral deployments in the wider region.

The downside to the growing defence links is that they have also reflected deteriorating security in the wider Middle East that has been at odds with New Zealand’s interest in growing trade and business ties with the Gulf. Negative stereotypes and a reluctance to differentiate between countries in the region do not help. In addition to powerful moral arguments, New Zealand could easily justify taking a more hands-on approach to Middle East peace efforts on business grounds.

Another takeaway from the study is the need for greater institutionalisation of relations. Despite their general bipartisan nature, New Zealand’s relations with the Gulf have waxed and waned over the years, in part because they have been overly reliant on the commendable efforts of a small number of individuals. More consistency is probably needed if relations are to deepen further.

To this end, New Zealand could work on expanding its collective knowledge and understanding of the wider region. New Zealand lacks an academic centre focused on the Middle East, while Arabic is the only one of the six official UN languages not to be taught by a New Zealand university. Wellington’s efforts in institutionalising ties with Asia since the 1980s, which included the establishment of the Asia New Zealand Foundation in 1994, could serve as a useful model.

Donald Trump’s hosting of Mohammed bin Salman at the White House this week is another sign of the times.

For Washington, the Gulf is only becoming more vital.

But as the Gulf states increasingly look east as well as west, Wellington is also finding the Gulf to be a crucial partner.

Sign up to Herald Premium Editor’s Picks, delivered straight to your inbox every Friday. Editor-in-Chief Murray Kirkness picks the week’s best features, interviews and investigations. Sign up for Herald Premium here.