Analysis: No winners in first public Auckland mayoral poll

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ANALYSIS

There are no winners in the Ratepayers' Alliance-Curia Auckland mayoral poll.

It's the worst of both worlds with a four-way tie between the centre-left candidate Efeso Collins and three candidates on the centre-right, Viv Beck, Wayne Brown and Leo Molloy.

Craig Lord, who came third in the 2019 mayoral race, is also in the hunt, four points behind the leading pack.

It's bad news for Collins because a) there was an expectation he would top the poll, and b) he is trailing the combined vote on the centre-right by a significant margin.

It's bad news for the centre-right because the poll gives Beck, Brown and Molloy a shot of winning the mayoral contest and the vote-splitting looks certain to continue.

This is a nightmare for National and the party's local de facto arm Communities and Residents (C&R), who have been scratching their heads over how to sort out the logjam on the right.

C&R lined up Beck to run a pro-business campaign with a distinct National Party flavour, but this was delayed to see who emerges as a frontrunner between her and Molloy in the hope one or other would pull out of the race.

Brown is standing as a true independent with no ties to National or Labour and no intention of doing deals or stepping aside. The same goes for Lord, whose votes could make the difference in a tight race.

In a Herald on Sunday column this month, Labour's campaign manager for the 2020 elections, Hayden Munro, said the mayoral race should be a golden opportunity for the Auckland right if they could sort themselves out - but right now, it looks like they're blowing it.

That's not to say Collins is a shoo-in. The Manukau councillor is charismatic and an impressive speaker with the backing of the Labour and Green parties, but not in the same league as Len Brown and Phil Goff, who were able to reel in large numbers of centre-right voters to record big election wins.

The poll is a wake-up call for Collins to broaden his appeal beyond the traditional Labour base and not fall into the trap of pandering to vested interests.

Collins must also overcome carrying the baggage that comes with being the "council candidate" when voters are clearly looking for change.

To quote Munro: "This year's Auckland mayoral race has all the makings of a cracker."