KEY POINTS:
Choke on that, Maori Party.
Michael Cullen was not so crass as to put it that bluntly. But the politics were never far from the surface during Tuesday's signing of the landmark foreshore and seabed deal between Ngati Porou and the Crown.
By coincidence, it was also Cullen's
63rd birthday. His description of the agreement as "the best birthday present I can possibly have" was warmly reciprocated by the Ngati Porou delegation spontaneously singing Happy Birthday.
The melodic rendition masked the gurgling sound of the Maori Party's prime and founding issue - repeal of the Foreshore and Seabed Act - going down the political plughole.
The inescapable conclusion from reading the formal heads of agreement, which lays out the the rights and powers that Ngati Porou hapu will have in the management of parts of the foreshore and seabed between East Cape and Gisborne, is that after four years of negotiations they emerge as the big winners. So, too, does the Labour Party - for a different reason.
Sure, Ngati Porou failed to negotiate formal recognition of hapu ownership of their areas of the foreshore and seabed. Then again, the Government was never going to allow that. Ngati Porou finally accepted a compromise that recognises the mana of its hapu over the foreshore and seabed is "unbroken, inalienable and enduring".
Otherwise, the deal is so good it is bound to prompt other iwi to consider negotiating directly with the Crown rather than seeking redress solely through the Foreshore and Seabed Act.
Two other iwi are already doing so. The Prime Minister claims 13 further iwi are similarly interested.
They will have to assess whether they will do as well as Ngati Porou given that tribe's strong negotiating position stemming from widespread ownership of land adjacent to the foreshore and consequent ability to prove customary practice and usage.
However, at Tuesday's ceremony, Cullen held out a carrot. He stressed that the onus was on the Crown to display good faith in negotiations and show it was not seeking "one-sided" solutions, such was the lingering pain and anger within Maoridom after the Government's refusal to cede ownership of the foreshore and seabed back in 2004.
The Maori Party's promise to repeal the hated legislation is suddenly starting to look less like a rallying cry and more like an irrelevance.
The party has anyway been unable to convince National to give it the votes for repeal. And even if the Maori Party is the powerbroker in post-election talks - as is likely - repeal may still be too big an ask for National.
Things will get even more complicated for the Maori Party closer to the election. The Ngati Porou deal will require enabling legislation. Will the Maori Party vote it down and incur the wrath of an important iwi? Or will it vote for it and cut across its assertion that ownership of the foreshore and seabed be vested in Maori?
Acknowledging there is a new reality rather than merely Maori Party rhetoric, the rest of Maoridom may simply move on.
That the ground is shifting from under her party was not lost on Tariana Turia. While the Maori Party's co-leader made predictable noises about the Government playing divide-and-rule and the deal being a sham, she refrained from criticising Ngati Porou, even though the iwi initiated negotiations with the Government before the act was passed.
Ironically, Turia's hopes of keeping the issue alive would be helped by there being a backlash from Pakeha once it becomes clear just what Ngati Porou have secured - right of veto over resource consent applications which impinge adversely on customary uses and practises, guaranteed access to relevant Cabinet ministers and government departments, the creation of customary fishing regulations - and once it becomes clear how much of the coastline between East Cape and Gisborne will be affected.
So far, however, the deal has received little detailed media coverage.
It was signed in Wellington while Helen Clark and John Key were jostling for attention at Waitangi. If that timing was deliberate - the Government insists it followed Ngati Porou's request - then it was smart politics.
While news organisations were focused on the Far North, comparative little attention was being paid to a deal that would have raised more hackles among Pakeha had it got the full treatment from the media. However, there is no doubt details of the agreement will find a wide audience in Maoridom.
The immediate beneficiary is Maori Affairs Minister Parekura Horomia, whose Ikaroa-Rawhiti electorate is one of three remaining Maori seats that the Maori Party wants to capture from Labour.
That Horomia needs all the help he can get was underlined just before Tuesday's signing ceremony with the news that broadcaster Derek Fox is seeking the Maori Party nomination for Ikaroa-Rawhiti.
Fox came close to beating Horomia in 1999 when he stood as an independent. He will be even more of a threat with the Maori Party's name next to his on the ballot paper.
Moreover, in 1999, the tide was coming in for Labour - and never more so in the Maori seats where there was a backlash against the rag-tag band of NZ First incumbents and deserters who had swept Labour out three years earlier.
Now, the tide is going out on Labour. Looking at past elections, the Maori Party will hold its current four seats and may well capture at least two of the remaining three, the exception being Hauraki-Waikato, where a strong Tainui presence will help incumbent Nanaia Mahuta.
While saying it will campaign hard in all seven Maori seats, Labour's priority is holding on to the ones it has got, while selecting smart, young candidates in the others to bolster its party vote.
Given past bitterness, it makes sense for Labour not to put up too much of a fight against Turia and Pita Sharples, given the need for post-election dialogue.
The bottom line for Labour is that National is the party that benefits from the Maori Party's presence in Parliament.
The equation is simple. The Maori Party takes votes off Labour.
The fewer seats the Maori Party wins, the harder it may be for National to govern, if the next Parliament is finely balanced between the centre-left and centre-right.
The delicate arithmetic underscores how significant, in political terms, this week's Crown-Ngati Porou deal is.
Labour still has to do a lot more to counter the Maori Party's appeal as a niche party that does not have to answer to anyone - and it starts from a long way behind.
But this week's deal was all about showing that when it comes to helping Maori, while Turia and company talk, Labour delivers.
