Why is Christopher Luxon so successful abroad and so woeful at home - Richard Prebble

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has seen his popularity in the polls fall. Photo / Mark Mitchell

THREE KEY FACTS

• Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has promised to reach a free trade agreement with India in his first term in government.
• Others have found securing a deal with India difficult.
• Luxon’s polling has continued to fall.

Are there two Christopher Luxons? In New Zealand, the Luxon from the corporate world who is still learning politics. Overseas, the Luxon who is an effervescent negotiator and salesman.

At home, Luxon is reluctant to take bold action.

Overseas, Luxon is recklessly bold. Given the notoriously slow Indian bureaucracy, no other politician would promise to conclude a free trade agreement by the election.

The British have failed. Sir John Key failed. Labour failed. Dame Jacinda Ardern did not visit.

A free trade agreement with India is an agreement with nearly a fifth of humanity. The Indian economy is bigger than the United Kingdom, growing at 6.5%, with millions joining the middle class. India has 659 million smartphone users.

A free trade deal would be hugely beneficial, with or without, dairy.

As we are realising, New Zealand is over-dependent on China and America. We need a new friend.

If Luxon secures a free trade agreement with India, the significance of the achievement cannot be overstated.

Here is the bad news. Foreign success has never been translated into votes. Ardern was enormously popular overseas while her support at home was in free fall.

Voters resent seeing our politicians overseas glad-handing at six-star resorts.

Somehow the home and the overseas Luxons must become one Luxon.

Luxon’s polling is awful. For electoral success the prime minister should be the most popular politician, polling above his party. Luxon is being saved because the two Christophers are so unpopular. Helen Clark, Key and Ardern regularly polled above the two Christophers combined.

The solution for the Opposition is to get another leader, only Labour has no one.

Replacing an elected prime minister is suicide. The reversal of the Canadian Liberals' fortunes is not due to the change of leader but the “rally around the flag” response to Donald Trump.

Luxon realises the economy is the deciding issue. The PM says he is “turbocharging economic growth”. The latest inflation and GDP figures are encouraging but most voters are not convinced that New Zealand is headed in the correct direction.

The coalition’s policies have not been urgent enough or bold enough to make a significant difference before the election.

Luxon must be a good negotiator. Who thought that a National, Act and New Zealand First coalition was possible?

Three-party coalitions are inherently unstable. The three-party coalition in Germany collapsed. The governing parties were punished in the election with the Free Democrats being expelled from the Bundestag.

Unless National can turn around its polling all three governing parties will need to be re-elected for Luxon to be re-elected prime minister. Not easy.

In politics those closest to you are often your biggest enemies. Being attacked by the left boosted my polling.

One speech by Jenny Shipley, saying Rodney Hide and myself were too radical, slashed Act’s polling.

The temptation as the election gets closer is to seek easy votes at the expense of coalition allies.

It will take more than negotiating skills to turn the coalition into a team. It will require leadership.

Perhaps there is just one Luxon. The deal with India required negotiation skills, not leadership.

While not advocating Trump’s bull in a China shop approach, Trump does illustrate how a leader can grab the initiative, create urgency and set the agenda.

Luxon is letting Air New Zealand and the officials in the Immigration Department determine our relationship with India.

There will be no direct flights from India for three years because Air New Zealand has no aircraft. India has five international airlines.

With an open-skies policy, an Indian airline could operate direct flights this year.

An Indian airline will only fly to New Zealand when there are enough passengers. Visas from India, and, as an aside, from China, are costly and bureaucratic.

Tourist visas should be free, able to be applied for using a smartphone, processed by AI and issued in minutes. With easy visas and direct flights from India, tourism, our biggest employer, would boom.

With leadership from the Prime Minister, without a free trade agreement, New Zealand could already be achieving significant benefits from our relationship with India.

Luxon’s 90-day plans are “ticking the boxes” management. The Prime Minister’s role is more than being a negotiator, salesman and manager. The Prime Minister is the country’s leader. It is Luxon’s lack of leadership that is killing his polling.

Another example. The sovereignty of Parliament is being challenged. It is Māori MPs, Winston Peters, Shane Jones and David Seymour who are leading the defence of our parliamentary democracy. Where is Luxon?

Leaders lead. Leaders set a compelling vision that others want to follow.

Leadership from Luxon would do wonders for his polling.