Uncertainty over the future of Auckland's port may be only part of investor sentiment stoking a 10 per cent lift in Port of Tauranga's share price this month and a nearly 50 per cent rise
Port of Tauranga share price buoyed by Auckland port debate, fair economic winds
Singh said Port of Tauranga was the second best performer on the NZX this year behind Fisher & Paykel Healthcare.
A Government-appointed working party has recommended Auckland's port be closed to cargo operations and an alternative major port developed at the deepsea Northport near Whangarei.
The group's report concluded Auckland's council-owned port was no longer economically or environmentally viable. Government officials are now doing a deeper cost and impact analysis of the scenario with a Crown decision expected by mid next year.
Singh said the beneficiary of the "huge disruption" of cargo that may result would be "the big port nearby, and that's Tauranga".
"That's probably helping (the share price) but some of the macro data coming out of New Zealand lately is positive.
"The domestic economy seems to be in a better position and there's a bunch of (economic) stimuli coming from the Government....sentiment has turned a bit more positive.
"Effectively that sentiment reflects the fact that expectations for GDP and general economic growth in New Zealand is more positive than it was three or six months ago."
Market pricing on speculation of just one more cut in the Official Cash Rate to take it to point 75 of a per cent, after a "U-turn" by the major banks which had been calling a result of point 25 of a per cent, was also a factor, Singh believed.
Another was continuing strong commodity prices for exports. The Tauranga port is New Zealand's largest export gateway.
Also in the mix was more positive sentiment about a US-China trade deal being achieved before the American elections next year.
"People are also realising there's a scarcity of high quality assets - particularly for the long-term (investment) - and everything is expensive," said Singh.
"What are the key assets in New Zealand that are difficult to replicate? Auckland airport and the Port of Tauranga. Both have been well-supported during the year regardless of looking expensive based on traditional metrics.
"People are looking at a longer term view - whatever happens with the Ports of Auckland will ultimately benefit Tauranga."
Singh noted Tauranga's inland port in Auckland, Metroport, was the country's fourth largest container port.
"So they already have a presence in Auckland....and as our economy gets bigger which of the ports around New Zealand has the ability to upsize? Obviously it's Tauranga."
The port company had invested $350m to be able to receive the world's biggest ships, and was planning another major wharf extension at Sulphur Point.
"Transhipments were up 11 per cent last year - the hub model is working for them."
Transhipments are when cargo from one ship is transferred to another, usually much larger, overseas-bound vessel.
The port which is well-served by rail was keen to attract more car imports which were "high margin stuff", said Singh.
He acknowledged the existing single Kaimai Tunnel rail track between the Bay of Plenty and Waikato was a potential constraint, but said the port could counter this by running more trains and making trains longer.
Chief executive Mark Cairns said the port company had the ability to treble cargo volumes between Auckland and Tauranga on the existing rail line.